Background
The current ceasefire between Hamas and Israel is built on complex agreements involving hostage releases, humanitarian aid distribution, and military de-escalation. Historical data shows that ceasefires in this region have broken down for various reasons, including violations by both sides, third-party interventions, and disputes over agreement terms.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve based on the primary triggering event that leads to a clear breakdown of the ceasefire, as determined by:
Official statements from involved parties
Major media reports from at least 3 reputable international news sources
UN confirmation
The market will resolve to the answer that best describes the initial action that led to the breakdown. If multiple events occur simultaneously, resolution will be based on the most significant contributing factor.
If the ceasefire remains intact through the end of 2025, all options will resolve as NO.
Small-scale violations that don't lead to a full breakdown will not trigger resolution
If new significant factors emerge that aren't covered by existing options, new answers may be added by any user
Update 2025-22-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If official statements from Hamas and Israel conflict, the resolution will be based on major media reports.
If media reports are varied, the resolution will defer to the UN stance as a last resort.
Update 2025-25-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If official statements from Hamas and Israel conflict, the resolution will be based on major media reports.
If media reports are varied, the resolution will defer to the UN stance as a last resort.
Update 2025-03-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
Media Source Selection
Only consider media sources from the centre of the AllSides Media Bias Chart.
The outlets to be reviewed include: BBC News, CS Monitor, CNBC, Forbes, Marketwatch (sourcing AP), The Hill, NewsNation, Reuters, Straight Arrow News, and WSJ (if applicable).
Resolution Process
In the event of conflicting official statements from Hamas and Israel, resolution will be based solely on these selected major media reports.
The decision will be made after 24 hours if no one objects.
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So officially, Hamas says Israel broke the ceasefire. The Israeli's say Hamas broke the ceasefire. So now we move to major media sources.
Using only sources in the centre of the AllSides Media Bias Chart: https://www.allsides.com/media-bias/media-bias-chart
BBC News took no editorial view. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67589259
CS Monitor subtle blaming of Israel (strikes) https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2025/0318/israel-gaza-ceasefire-airstrikes-war-fatigue
CNBC took no editorial view https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/18/israel-attacks-targets-in-gaza-as-ceasefire-deadlock-breaks.html?&qsearchterm=ceasefire%20broken%20israel
Forbes blamed Israel (strikes) https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2025/03/18/hundreds-dead-in-gaza-after-major-israeli-airstrikes-end-ceasefire/
Marketwatch took no editorial view, and sourced APNews (which is classed as having mediabias) https://www.marketwatch.com/story/israel-resumes-fighting-in-gaza-killing-dozens-in-airstrikes-targeting-hamas-777f0715?mod=search_headline
The Hill blamed Israel (strikes) https://thehill.com/newsletters/defense-national-security/5204365-israel-returns-to-deadly-force-in-gaza/
NewsNation blames Israel (strikes) https://www.newsnationnow.com/world/war-in-israel/father-last-living-american-hostage-gaza-negotiations/
-Could not find anything for Newsweek-
-Could not find anything for RealClear Politics-
Reason blamed Israel (strikes) https://reason.com/2025/03/18/we-are-not-stopping/
Reuters blamed Israel (strikes) https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/least-70-palestinians-killed-israeli-strikes-across-gaza-gaza-health-authorities-2025-03-20/
Straight Arrow News took no editorial view https://san.com/cc/israeli-airstrikes-kill-hundreds-in-gaza-as-hamas-ceasefire-talks-stall-unbiased-updates-march-18-2025/
-Checked several WSJ article, seems to be no editorial view-
So we have 6 outlets of repute, blaming Israel's strikes. I will use this to resolve in 24h if no one objects.
@PaulBenjaminPhotographer If the 1st has hamas and israel giving different stories. We will go the 2nd. If the media is varied, we will go to UN stance as a last resort.