Background

The current ceasefire between Hamas and Israel is built on complex agreements involving hostage releases, humanitarian aid distribution, and military de-escalation. Historical data shows that ceasefires in this region have broken down for various reasons, including violations by both sides, third-party interventions, and disputes over agreement terms.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on the primary triggering event that leads to a clear breakdown of the ceasefire, as determined by:

• Official statements from involved parties

• Major media reports from at least 3 reputable international news sources

• UN confirmation

The market will resolve to the answer that best describes the initial action that led to the breakdown. If multiple events occur simultaneously, resolution will be based on the most significant contributing factor.

If the ceasefire remains intact through the end of 2025, all options will resolve as NO.

• Small-scale violations that don't lead to a full breakdown will not trigger resolution

• If new significant factors emerge that aren't covered by existing options, new answers may be added by any user

• Update 2025-22-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If official statements from Hamas and Israel conflict, the resolution will be based on major media reports.

  • If media reports are varied, the resolution will defer to the UN stance as a last resort.

• Update 2025-25-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If official statements from Hamas and Israel conflict, the resolution will be based on major media reports.

  • If media reports are varied, the resolution will defer to the UN stance as a last resort.

• Update 2025-03-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator

Media Source Selection

• Only consider media sources from the centre of the AllSides Media Bias Chart.

• The outlets to be reviewed include: BBC News, CS Monitor, CNBC, Forbes, Marketwatch (sourcing AP), The Hill, NewsNation, Reuters, Straight Arrow News, and WSJ (if applicable).

Resolution Process

• In the event of conflicting official statements from Hamas and Israel, resolution will be based solely on these selected major media reports.

• The decision will be made after 24 hours if no one objects.