Will more people die on Western Australian roads in 2024 than in 2023?
Basic
9
Ṁ547
Dec 31
90%
chance

This will be based on official government road death statistics.

May not resolve until the end of February as deaths within 30 days qualify. (I will only delay resolution if the numbers are very close together)

May not resolve to yes immediately upon the number exceeding the previous year's total as sometimes deaths are reclassified later (as certain types of deaths on the road aren't included in the official statistics). Again, if the numbers aren't close together, then it will resolve appropriately.

For the purposes of extending resolution time, 5 deaths difference will be considered "close together". Close date will remain midnight 31st December, though.

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bought Ṁ75 YES

2024 is the worst year for 10 years so far, while 2023 was the best year for 10 years.

2023 had fewer deaths than 9 of the past 10 years, so it's sadly likely that 2024 will have regression to the mean.

Bet small on YES on the uninformed theory that population goes up, vehicle miles go up, accidents go up. But then I checked the data and looks like fatalities have been holding fairly steady for the past 10 years! (And serious injuries have dropped substantially!) Nice work WA.

predicts NO

@jcb this is normal and desired! In fact, road deaths have halved since the 1980s

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