All are at the time of moon walk unless otherwise specified.
Add your own. Should be easily verified (ie nothing like "they love pineapple on pizza").
Intention is "what will be the properties of Neil Armstrong 2.0".
In general, all items are taken to be "as publicly known, at the time of the landing". So if the astronaut is trans but stealth and this has somehow not come up, it would resolve 'NO' for 'is transgender'. Similarly, if they came out as trans 10 years later, it would not change the resolution retroactively.
Things that might not be known for a while (e.g. a video of them falling/dancing) will have at most 12 months post-moonwalk to appear, and if they don't appear will resolve NO. I will try to make sure I edit any such items so it is clear for betters.
1,000
3.00The "simultaneous step by two or more people" is living rent-free in my head for a month now. I'm going to resolve this based on vibes if it happens: that is, if Anne and Bob take the first step together, it will resolve 50% male, similarly for other personal properties like being ginger or having degrees etc.
If Bob says something momentous, it will resolve 100% on the momentous option. If Anne attempts to say something momentous and it falls flat it will resolve 100% on the failed momentous option too. If there's a video of Anne falling down on the moon, it will resolve 100% for video falling over.
Hopefully that gives you an idea of how my vibes work. Basically, innate properties will resolve to % of first steppers who have the property, but actions will resolve 100% if any first stepper performs said action.
That said, if Anne dies on the moon and Bob returns home safely, I'd resolve that option to 50% not 100%, so if the relevant space travel body gives the impression that they're doing simultaneous steps I'll make a ruling for each item asap I guess?
I'm open to debate on this one but I think it best fits the spirit, which is to predict who will be selected on one hand, and on the other hand to predict what they'll do.
At the moment, in the event that two or more people take the step together, I'm considering resolving it to the percentage of the first steppers that meet the criteria (ie if a man and a woman take the first step together, then resolve male to 50%).
That said, some (eg saying something momentous) would be tricky to resolve accurately in that case. If three people step at the same time and one says something deeply poignant, does it resolve to 33%? Surely it would be impossible for the three of them to recite the same thing together which would be required for 100%?
I am thinking I don't want to think about this unless it looks like a simultaneous step is actually likely.
@Mad resolve to a poll: "Who actually touched the lunar surface first?". Because someone has to have been first.
@jim sounds like an idea. but then if three people step simultaneously (say Neil, Buzz, Michael), and Buzz's feet hit the surface first, but Neil says something momentous, that would feel unfair in some way as the relevant factor of that prediction item is "will the first step be accompanied by a momentous saying?". But maybe that's a different market.
Also, part of my intention with this was to forecast the political side of this choice (i.e. the voting shows they are likely to put a woman down first, no doubt because no woman has ever stepped on the moon), as well as things like e.g. will it be NASA or the Chinese space agency (American vs Chinese citizen). If there are multiple people who are intended to step together (to symbolise American & Chinese unity/cooperation, say), it'd be strange to leave it to what is essentially a coin flip based on whose boot contacts the moon first on a frame by frame analysis, wouldn't it?
@Mad yeah you're right
P.S. it is obviously going to be a woman. They couldn't make it more obvious. Chang'e (or whatever) is the Chinese Moon Godess. Artemis is literally Apollo's sister. It's gonna be a woman.
@strutheo my intention is the first person to step foot on the moon (ie Neil Armstrong counts, Buzz Aldrin doesn't). I am not sure what I'd do if they do some simultaneous thing where everyone in the mission steps on at the same time.
Appears I inspired this market:
https://manifold.markets/strutheo/what-will-be-true-about-the-first-p?r=TWFk
Go bet there too!