This market asks whether the next person to hold the title “King of France” will be bald at the time they assume that title.

For purposes of this market, “King of France” means a person who is the recognized head of state of France with the official title of king (or its French equivalent, “Roi de France”). This would require France to restore its monarchy and for someone to be formally crowned or otherwise assume the throne.

“Bald” means having little or no hair on the scalp, whether through natural hair loss, alopecia, or deliberate shaving. Someone with significant visible hair coverage across most of the scalp does not count as bald. Thinning hair or partial baldness counts as bald if a reasonable observer would describe the person as bald rather than as having thinning hair.

This market will remain open until December 31, 2027, or until someone becomes King of France, whichever comes first.

Resolution Criteria:

- YES if, before December 31, 2027, someone becomes King of France and that person is bald at the time they assume the title.

- NO if, before December 31, 2027, someone becomes King of France and that person is not bald at the time they assume the title.

- N/A if, by December 31, 2027, no one has become King of France.

Resolution will be based on widely available photographic and video evidence, news reports from major French and international media, and official statements from the French government.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

(Description created with the assistance of Claude Sonnet 4.5)