Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if the S&P 500 (SPX) or the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) meets any of the conditions below during the window. Otherwise it resolves NO. The cause of the decline does not matter.
Window: the regular trading sessions of Oct 29, Oct 30, Nov 2, and Nov 3, 2026.
Baseline: the official close on Oct 28, 2026, which is the last close before the hack was reported.
The market resolves YES if any of the following happens:
Single-day drop: either index closes below its previous session's official close by at least:
5.00% for the S&P 500, or
7.00% for the Nasdaq Composite.
Cumulative drop: either index closes at least 10.00% below its baseline close.
Circuit breaker: a market-wide trading halt is triggered, at Level 1 or higher, because the S&P 500 fell 7% or more from its prior close.
The Nasdaq Composite has a higher single-day threshold because it is more volatile than the S&P 500.
Calculations: percentages are computed from official closing values without rounding, so a drop of 4.99% on the S&P 500 does not count. Intraday moves and futures do not count, except through condition 3.
Sources: official closes come from S&P Dow Jones Indices (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMP). If those are unavailable, the Wall Street Journal or Yahoo Finance historical data will be used. If a provider corrects a published close within 24 hours, the corrected value applies. Circuit-breaker halts are confirmed by NYSE or Nasdaq announcements or by major news coverage.
Closures: an unscheduled market closure does not extend the window.
The market resolves after the official Nov 3 closes are published.
Background
On October 29, 2026, on-chain observers reported multi-billion-dollar outflows from wallets linked to Binance. Binance said it was investigating a security incident. Tether and Circle reportedly froze assets tied to the flagged addresses, and BTC and BNB fell sharply. This background is context only and does not affect resolution.
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