Dec 1 2023 to Nov 30 2026, will a UK strike price of £65 (2012 prices) for offshore wind save consumers money?
Dec 1 2023 to Nov 30 2026, will a UK strike price of £65 (2012 prices) for offshore wind save consumers money?
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"Between 1 December 2023 and 30 November 2026, will a UK strike price of £65 (2012 prices) for offshore wind result in net savings, inflation-adjusted, for the Low Carbon Contract Company to a hypothetical renewable generator?"
Potential outcomes:
Yes, it will result in net savings for the Low Carbon Contract Company.
No, it will result in net payments from the Low Carbon Contract Company.
Source: Low Carbon Contract Company
Reference project: "Triton Knoll Offshore Wind Farm Phase 1" (CFD_ID: AR2-TKN-103), with a strike price of £74.75 per MWh (2012 prices), needs to be adjusted to reflect a strike price of £65.
Inflation: ONS Consumer Price Index, monthly
Discount rate: 3.5 per cent (as per the UK Treasury Green Book).
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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