America is expected to announce a deal where they lift sanctions and in exchange, they allow free elections.
If the opposition is elected, this market resolves to YES.
If the international consensus of observers, including the Organization of American States, as described by the mainstream media (The Economist, NYT...) say they consider the election was fair and nonetheless socialism won, this market resolves to YES.
Otherwise this market resolves to NO.
I won't bet. This market will require judgment.
Related questions
@BrunoParga if observers say it was clean, this market resolves to YES.
Ecuador election was clean, despite the incredible violence there
@nikki the government can't assassinate candidates. But it's an infortunate that people are fragile and they die against a bullet. This happens often in modern democracies. See: Robert F. Kennedy 1968 assassination, George Wallace's 1972 murder attempt, or Roosevelt 1912 murder attempt.