https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-16/apple-project-to-replace-modems-made-by-qualcomm-falls-further-behind-to-2026

Apple use the modem designed by Quualcomm many years. So if they change another modem, they will have the cost increased.

Apple has adopted Qualcomm Snapdragon solution ever since they launched their first 5G iPhone in 2020. The latest released iPhone 15 also used SDX70 series from Qualcomm.

To reduce the license fee and cost, Apple has bought modem patent from intel since 2019, but the self-designed 5G modem is still not yet debut since then.

According to the report, if the developing modem can not even met Android 5G performance, it can probably only be used in the low-cost version like iPhone SE series.

Therefore, there is unlikey Apple will launch the iPhone 16 without Qualcomm solution.

https://appleinsider.com/articles/23/09/21/apples-iphone-modem-design-is-three-years-behind-qualcomm#:~:text=Apple%20intended%20for%20the%20iPhone,cellular%20features%20of%20the%20iPhone.

Apple's own iPhone modem design 'three years' behind Qualcomm

Apple intended for the iPhone 15 to use an 5G modem designed in-house, and it has spent billions working to achieve that. Here's why it still has to buy modems from Qualcomm.

@JasmineILingChiu The upcoming iPhone 16 series is expected to continue using Qualcomm's modem technology. Despite Apple's efforts to develop its own 5G modem, which has been underway since 2018, the project has faced significant development challenges. As a result, Apple's in-house 5G modem is not anticipated to be announced until 2025. This delay means that for the iPhone 16 series, set to launch in the fall of 2024, Qualcomm will likely remain Apple's sole supplier of 5G modems.

For the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max models, they are expected to be equipped with Qualcomm's latest cellular modem. Specifically, the iPhone 16 series is reported to feature the Snapdragon X70 5G modem from Qualcomm, which boasts power-efficiency improvements over its predecessor, the Snapdragon X65. Additionally, the iPhone 16 Pro models are expected to support "5G Advanced" technology, a step up from previous models. This situation mirrors the earlier transition when the iPhone 6s gained "LTE Advanced" support.

In summary, while Apple has made significant investments to develop its own 5G modem, including acquiring modem patents from Intel in 2019, the actual debut of an Apple-designed 5G modem in their iPhone lineup, including the iPhone 16, seems unlikely until at least 2025. Thus, the iPhone 16 is expected to continue using Qualcomm's advanced 5G modem solutions.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/11/qualcomm-to-supply-apple-with-5g-modems-for-iphones-through-2026.html

Qualcomm says it will supply Apple with 5G modems for iPhones through 2026

Wall Street analysts and Qualcomm officials had previously said they expected Apple to use an internally developed 5G modem starting in 2024.

For Apple product revenue, we now expect to have the vast majority of share of 5G modems for the 2023 iPhone launch, up from our previous 20% assumption. Beyond this, there are no changes to our planning assumption, and we are assuming minimal contribution from Apple product revenues in fiscal '25. [Starting Oct 1, 2024]

- Qualcomm Earnings call for Q4 2022

@ahalekelly The point of the market is that Cupertino already pushed on their 2023 targets, therefore it isn't crazy to think they can do the same in 2025.