Will Putin be imprisioned in the 2024 Rio de Janeiro G20 summit?
Plus
31
αΉ3771Dec 1
1D
1W
1M
ALL
90%
Putin will not attend
0.2%
Putin attends and is imprisoned
10%
Putin attends and isn't imprisoned
The ICC currently has an arrest warrant against the Russian dictator Vladmir Putin. As a signatary of the Rome Statute, Brazilian authorities are required by Brazilian law to arrest the criminal.
Lula recently said that Putin wouldn't be arrested were he to choose to attend. The Brazilian president has no power whatsoever to make such promises.
This market resolves to the correct outcome when the 2024 summit happens in Rio de Janeiro.
If needed, I'll extend the conclusion date. I may bet on this market.
Any time in jail would count, even if Putin were to get a subsequent habeas corpus.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will Vladimir Putin attend the G20 in Brazil in 2024?
5% chance
Will Vladimir Putin attend the 2024 G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro?
9% chance
What countries will Vladimir Putin visit in 2024?
Will Brazil arrest Putin at the G20 Summit?
3% chance
What countries will Vladimir Putin visit during 2024?
What will be true of Vladimir Putin in 2024?
Will Putin die in office?
77% chance
Will Putin be revealed to have severe illness by the end of 2024?
14% chance
Will Vladimir Putin be alive and in custody at any point before EOY 2024?
5% chance
Will Putin be assassinated during his presidency?
19% chance