Will Microsoft complete the Activision Blizzard acquisition no longer than Dec 31st 2023?
resolved Oct 14

This question will settle YES if Microsoft buys Activision Blizzard.

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Market solved. Congratulations to all the bulls. Never doubt Brad Smith

predicted YES

@MP please resolve I have -33,000 mana <3

@SemioticRivalry what's happening?

@MP Liquidity crunch, same as it ever was

Manifold is unimpressed by the Ubisoft deal

predicted YES

@MP The Ubisoft deal clearly makes the acquisition more likely, I don't know why people bet the other way.

predicted YES

Related market!

bought Ṁ0 of NO

How do I reconcile this market and /MP/will-microsoft-seriously-attempt-to ? Does markets think that Microsoft will win with the CAT?

predicted YES

@MP I think the CMA will approve the merger. It's why I only bet on this post and not the one you're linking.

bought Ṁ149 of YES

Microsoft won!

predicted NO

@MP And the FTC has appealed

predicted YES

Ok guys, the last day of hearing. Here's the playbook.

1) The deadline to close the deal is approaching. I am skeptical they're going to extend the terms, given how brutal the disclosures were in what was just a P.I. judgement. It is going to take years, particularly considering the U.K and Canada just stopped the deal.

2) I am very bullish that if they get the P.I, /MP/will-microsoft-seriously-attempt-to nor the Canada approval. Unfortunately I didn't create a market that was conditional on the preliminary injuction being denied, but 35% is very high nonetheless (particularly compared to here)

3) I am certainly above the market on Microsoft winning against the FTC. Today's Q&A from the judge was basically FTC in the defensive. What caused me surprise was how they basically only discussed the merits of the acquisition, not the urgency of the PI and why would be such irreparable damage were the acquisition to proceed. It's a double-edged sword: eitherthe judge thinks it definitely causes irreparable damage, and therefore wants to adjudicate based on merits or she knows she's effectively killing the deal and wants to decide based on that.

Anyway, I am happy with my position here and I sold a bit more on the Canada news earlier. Let the games begin.

predicted NO

@MP Canada doesn’t prevent the deal from closing and the UK process is likely Q1 2024. Why would MSFT fight so hard to give up?

predicted YES

@CapitalHousecat because the US can take years. Ilumina Grail took 3 years

predicted NO

@MP They can close if they get the UK and the PI is denied though.

predicted NO


the UK process is likely Q1 2023

What do you mean by that? Q1 2023 is already over

predicted NO

@Gabrielle typo sorry Q1 2024

predicted YES

The NYT is reporting that Microsoft plans to walk away if the preliminary injunction is granted to the FTC.

predicted YES

New market just dropped.


predicted YES

Brad Smith just said that the FTC suit should accelerate the conclusion

bought Ṁ0 of YES

Guys just to clarify.

1) DISCLAIMER: I am by far the largest YES holder. I don't expect it to be an issue, but I'll address a possible controversial point.

2) There is the thesis that Redmond will acquire ABK without regulator approval. Perhaps then CMA or FTC would win in court and make MSFT sell it. I plan to resolve this market to YES if public shareholders of ABK get their $95 paid from Microsoft pockets. This is in spirit with the description, because in such world, Microsoft would have bought ABK, even though they are Perhaps breaking the law. I don't think I'll be persuaded otherwise, but I am open to listen.

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO


The Federal Trade Commission plans to sue Microsoft Corp. in federal court Monday to block the company from closing its $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard Inc, according to a person familiar with the matter.

predicted YES
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