If the mainstream media or the mainstream tech media report that the people responsible for Red Team and care about Gemini Ultra fairness were actually trying to sabotage it because of their connections with anti-AI movements of Less Wrong, rationalism, and effective austrism, this market resolves to YES.
I won't bet.
1,000"As of February 28, 2025, there is no evidence that the Gemini Ultra launch fiasco was a result of Rationalist/EA sabotage, and it is highly unlikely that such evidence will emerge by the end of February 2025.
The Gemini Ultra launch issues appear to be primarily related to internal problems at Google, rather than external sabotage:"
"Google CEO Sundar Pichai acknowledged the company "messed up" on image generation due to insufficient testing 5."
How will this resolve if there is credible evidence or proof of sabotage at Gemini for reasons not directly related to Less Wrong, rationalism, or effective altruism? (For instance, "anti-woke" elements trying trying to embarrass their DEI department through malicious compliance.)
Relatedly, how will this resolve if there is evidence of sabotage but there is insufficient data to establish motivation?
@TheOtherKC only if the elements are related to EA/LessWrong anti-AI activism.
This market will only resolve YES if there's evidence pointing to sabotage by Rationalist/EA activists.