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This can resolve NO. Figma announced today they are abandoning the deal.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/eu-antitrust-regulators-resume-adobe-figma-probe-deadline-feb-5-2023-10-20/

EU antitrust regulators resume Adobe, Figma probe, deadline Feb. 5

European Union antitrust regulators have resumed their investigation into Photoshop maker Adobe's $20 billion bid for cloud-based designer platform Figma, setting a Feb. 5 deadline for their decision, a European Commission filing showed on Friday.

The EU’s in-depth probe, set to run until Dec. 14, will also analyze “whether the transaction may foreclose rival providers” by “bundling Figma with Adobe’s Creative Cloud suite.” 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/adobe-s-20-billion-figma-takeover-hit-by-in-depth-eu-probe/ar-AA1eUQ7x

Reading the comments, people appear to be betting on outcomes whereas they really should be betting on the timeline. If this gets a phase 2 in Europe (I think it will) you will blow throw the end of the year

@CapitalHousecat This market is really just "will this merger get a phase 2 in Europe", and I feel like that's a 50/50 chance with current information.

I'm personally more bullish than most people here, simply because I think the assumption that Adobe is buying a competitor is actually a false assumption. Figma does not compete with any current Adobe product.

@TaylorLapeyre It can also get sued in the US or blocked in the UK

@CapitalHousecat Adobe would push forward even if the UK blocked it. The US seems like a stretch to me.

EDIT: actually looking more closely at the merger agreement, the US, UK, and EU all need to sign off for the deal to be valid.

https://www.ft.com/content/d041351e-0974-4a27-ada2-7c026f67e765

Adobe’s $20bn deal to acquire rival Figma is set to face a lengthy antitrust investigation in the EU, in the latest move that threatens the software giant’s attempt to consolidate the digital design market.
According to four people with direct knowledge of the move, European antitrust regulators are preparing to launch a formal investigation into the acquisition later this year, over concerns the transaction will lead to less innovation and higher prices.
Many large acquisitions receive an interrogation, known in EU circles as a “phase 1” investigation, which typically takes a few months to complete. But those close to the situation suggest that EU authorities plan to push forward with a more detailed “phase 2” investigation, which could take many more months and may ultimately derail the deal altogether.

Even if the EU doesn't wind up blocking it, the investigation will take this beyond the end of 2023. I don't see how this could still resolve YES.

@Gabrielle the face that I own most of the M&A markets make me so annoyed. These markets are just not clear to allow the creator to bet

@MP the fact*

@MP Which way would you bet?

If we disagree, I could do a side bet with some third party as the judge.

@Gabrielle I already stated in the description I wouldn't bet. In more recent markets I had a more flexible approach. But I'd be betting NO, even more at these 50%+ probabilities. Figma management teams acknowledged in the past they compete with Adobe (I know I read the smoking gun, but couldn't find it). It's very clear they're committing foreclosure

@Gabrielle Notably:

people close to the process saying the company could still avoid an in-depth probe if it provided compelling evidence to counteract their concerns in the coming months

I personally believe that there is compelling evidence to counteract their concerns.

Bloomberg: ADOBE STILL SEES FIGMA DEAL CLOSING IN 2023

Article Link

Framer.io has released an AI design product, putting Figma in hot water. Figma faces stiff competition in the design tool field right now.

Considering that Adobe no longer has any comparable design tool at all, I do not see a good reason to block this acquisition on anti-competitive grounds.

Apple's Vision Pro announcement does carry some potential consequences for old-school design tools such as Figma. Competition on the spacial computing front and the AI front will become more intense very quickly.

Adobe no longer lists XD in its product lineup

https://www.adobe.com/products/catalog.html

And it is no longer available on Creative Cloud https://twitter.com/JedBridges/status/1650611927385804800

@TaylorLapeyre nice catch

The case for blocking this acquisition is not very good. In order to block the deal, regulators need to prove that this deal is actually a case of Adobe acquiring a direct competitor to their business to anti-competitively prevent a company from being better than them.

Adobe does not really have any meaningful tool in the product design space. XD is dead. Figma also can’t edit images or do anything that the Adobe suite does really. Adobe stands to benefit by adding a new design tool to their suite, Figma stands to benefit by getting access to Adobe’s tech, Figma’s customers stand to benefit by having photo editing features inside of Figma, and Adobe’s existing customers stand to benefit as well.

There is a world where Figma was encroaching on Adobe’s core business and presents a threat to them. But it’s unlikely, they are good at different things.

More here: https://stratechery.com/2023/an-interview-with-adobe-chief-strategy-officer-scott-belsky/

@TaylorLapeyre Figma CEO said many times in the past they competed with Adobe. Any interview (which presumably you can easily prove it was approved by Figma PR department) says they're competing with Adobe.

Even Figma's own website today has a compare section where they propose you to compare Figma with Sketch, Adobe XD, Invision Studio, Framer, Design on Windows, Miro.

Here for example he's saying that he respects Adobe's competition
https://distributed.blog/2021/11/18/dylan-field-figma-talks-design-with-connie-yang/
" We have obviously a major competitor in this in Adobe. And I think it’s really important to just have a super healthy respect for your competition."

It's a walk in the park to prove that both companies compete when the CEO is talking publicly about it

@MP It's completely legal to buy a competitor, that happens all the time. It's only illegal to acquire a competitor if the resultant situation results in a monopoly which is harmful to the consumers. As I laid out, this acquisition could be beneficial to all involved. It would also be quite a stretch to say that in this new AI-dominated highly in-flux market, Adobe + Figma is a "monopoly of the product design space"

@TaylorLapeyre wrong. The idea of consumer surplus is one interpretation of the Sherman and Clayton Acts. It's perfectly fine to prevent M&A only because the companies are competitors (see Philadelphia Bank, Utah Pie, Brown Shoe and so on)

You cannot agree that they're competitors because under any possible market structure in which they're competitors, the combined company will have an incredibly high market share.

You need to say that tools like XD and Figma make a distinct market than other creative tools and that Adobe can buy Figma if they divest from XD

I'm not sure I understand your argument. It seems to be something like

1. Figma said that they compete with one of Adobe's products

2. FTC can block any acquisition because the companies are competitors, period

3. In a market where Figma/Adobe exists, they will have a very high market share of the design tool space, therefore I cannot agree that they are competitors? (I do not understand this at all)

4. (Aside: If Adobe were to divest from XD, then sure, they could acquire Figma?)

Please help clarify this! And to summarize my current viewpoint, taking into consideration the points you've raised:

1. The FTC is most likely to block an acquisition if the result is a monopoly that is harmful to consumers. Not that this is the only possible reason, but it's the most likely

2. The current design tool market is highly in flux, and established companies are currently liable for disruption particularly with AI.

3. I don't see a world where Figma/Adobe is unstoppable after this acquisition in the product design space, both because of market conditions and the changing state of software development and design.

4. Adobe would likely easily divest from XD, which is currently a loss-leader anyway, if it meant that they could integrate Figma into their suite.

@TaylorLapeyre My argument is twofold

1- In a world where interface design is a distinct market from the markets where Adobe competes (video editing, audio editing, photo editing...), there's no problem Adobe buying Figma, because a simple remedy would solve the problems.
2- If the relevant market is creative tools at large (as Figma seems to have believed), then the combined company will have a very large share of the market, and the deal should be blocked.

To your points
1- This FTC and DOJ sues for reasons other than harm to consumers. They wrote books attacking Bork.
2- If it is in flux, why Adobe and Figma have such big market shares?
3- It is pretty clear to me that Figma would launch competitive products in areas Adobe c- compete, were they to remain independent.
4- Yes, they would. My point is that you can't agree we are in the world 2.

@MP To your points on my points

1. No disagreement there. But, I am predicting. I'm going to use all-time precedent to predict forward, and trying to read the mind of the FTC and DOJ's newest ideas about blocking acquisitions seems like folly.

2. Adobe's market share in this space is 2.3% by my googling, and shrinking rapidly. To say that Adobe is an "big market share" is false. Figma does have a large market share, yes, but that does not mean that there is no competition in the space. Just look at OpenAI for example — they might be the largest percentage of the space, but it is still insanely competitive right now because of evolving tech.

3. That is not actually clear to me, and I doubt that there is legal reason to believe that. Even if Figma has publicly said something like, "we'd like to add photo editing features", that does not mean that they actually could deliver a competitive product.

4. Still not sure I understand this

@TaylorLapeyre which market share are u quoting?

@MP After a bit more rigorous googling, I think this is the most recent "source" I can find on market share — probably not 2% but something more like 10-15% https://twitter.com/GergelyOrosz/status/1633865322603094017?lang=en