Will Adobe close their acquisition of Figma by end of 2023?
closes 2024

This market closes to YES if Adobe releases a press release announcing that they fully closed their Figma acquisition.

This market closes to NO if they announce that they are dropping their Figma acquisition. This market also closes to NO at Dec 31st 2023.

The creator shall not bet.

Nov 16, 7:49pm: Will Adobe close the Figma acquisition until the end of 2023? → Will Adobe close their acquisition of Figma by end of 2023?

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TaylorLapeyre avatar
Taylor Lapeyreis predicting YES at 35%

Adobe no longer lists XD in its product lineup


And it is no longer available on Creative Cloud https://twitter.com/JedBridges/status/1650611927385804800

MP avatar
MPis predicting NO at 38%

@TaylorLapeyre nice catch

TaylorLapeyre avatar
Taylor Lapeyreis predicting YES at 38%

The case for blocking this acquisition is not very good. In order to block the deal, regulators need to prove that this deal is actually a case of Adobe acquiring a direct competitor to their business to anti-competitively prevent a company from being better than them.

Adobe does not really have any meaningful tool in the product design space. XD is dead. Figma also can’t edit images or do anything that the Adobe suite does really. Adobe stands to benefit by adding a new design tool to their suite, Figma stands to benefit by getting access to Adobe’s tech, Figma’s customers stand to benefit by having photo editing features inside of Figma, and Adobe’s existing customers stand to benefit as well.

There is a world where Figma was encroaching on Adobe’s core business and presents a threat to them. But it’s unlikely, they are good at different things.

More here: https://stratechery.com/2023/an-interview-with-adobe-chief-strategy-officer-scott-belsky/

MP avatar
MPis predicting NO at 41%

@TaylorLapeyre Figma CEO said many times in the past they competed with Adobe. Any interview (which presumably you can easily prove it was approved by Figma PR department) says they're competing with Adobe.

Even Figma's own website today has a compare section where they propose you to compare Figma with Sketch, Adobe XD, Invision Studio, Framer, Design on Windows, Miro.

Here for example he's saying that he respects Adobe's competition
" We have obviously a major competitor in this in Adobe. And I think it’s really important to just have a super healthy respect for your competition."

It's a walk in the park to prove that both companies compete when the CEO is talking publicly about it

TaylorLapeyre avatar
Taylor Lapeyreis predicting YES at 41%

@MP It's completely legal to buy a competitor, that happens all the time. It's only illegal to acquire a competitor if the resultant situation results in a monopoly which is harmful to the consumers. As I laid out, this acquisition could be beneficial to all involved. It would also be quite a stretch to say that in this new AI-dominated highly in-flux market, Adobe + Figma is a "monopoly of the product design space"

MP avatar
MPis predicting NO at 41%

@TaylorLapeyre wrong. The idea of consumer surplus is one interpretation of the Sherman and Clayton Acts. It's perfectly fine to prevent M&A only because the companies are competitors (see Philadelphia Bank, Utah Pie, Brown Shoe and so on)

MP avatar
MPis predicting NO at 41%

You cannot agree that they're competitors because under any possible market structure in which they're competitors, the combined company will have an incredibly high market share.

You need to say that tools like XD and Figma make a distinct market than other creative tools and that Adobe can buy Figma if they divest from XD

TaylorLapeyre avatar
Taylor Lapeyreis predicting YES at 41%

I'm not sure I understand your argument. It seems to be something like

  1. Figma said that they compete with one of Adobe's products

  2. FTC can block any acquisition because the companies are competitors, period

  3. In a market where Figma/Adobe exists, they will have a very high market share of the design tool space, therefore I cannot agree that they are competitors? (I do not understand this at all)

  4. (Aside: If Adobe were to divest from XD, then sure, they could acquire Figma?)

Please help clarify this! And to summarize my current viewpoint, taking into consideration the points you've raised:

  1. The FTC is most likely to block an acquisition if the result is a monopoly that is harmful to consumers. Not that this is the only possible reason, but it's the most likely

  2. The current design tool market is highly in flux, and established companies are currently liable for disruption particularly with AI.

  3. I don't see a world where Figma/Adobe is unstoppable after this acquisition in the product design space, both because of market conditions and the changing state of software development and design.

  4. Adobe would likely easily divest from XD, which is currently a loss-leader anyway, if it meant that they could integrate Figma into their suite.

MP avatar
MPis predicting NO at 41%

@TaylorLapeyre My argument is twofold

1- In a world where interface design is a distinct market from the markets where Adobe competes (video editing, audio editing, photo editing...), there's no problem Adobe buying Figma, because a simple remedy would solve the problems.
2- If the relevant market is creative tools at large (as Figma seems to have believed), then the combined company will have a very large share of the market, and the deal should be blocked.

To your points
1- This FTC and DOJ sues for reasons other than harm to consumers. They wrote books attacking Bork.
2- If it is in flux, why Adobe and Figma have such big market shares?
3- It is pretty clear to me that Figma would launch competitive products in areas Adobe c- compete, were they to remain independent.
4- Yes, they would. My point is that you can't agree we are in the world 2.

TaylorLapeyre avatar
Taylor Lapeyreis predicting YES at 41%

@MP To your points on my points

  1. No disagreement there. But, I am predicting. I'm going to use all-time precedent to predict forward, and trying to read the mind of the FTC and DOJ's newest ideas about blocking acquisitions seems like folly.

  2. Adobe's market share in this space is 2.3% by my googling, and shrinking rapidly. To say that Adobe is an "big market share" is false. Figma does have a large market share, yes, but that does not mean that there is no competition in the space. Just look at OpenAI for example — they might be the largest percentage of the space, but it is still insanely competitive right now because of evolving tech.

  3. That is not actually clear to me, and I doubt that there is legal reason to believe that. Even if Figma has publicly said something like, "we'd like to add photo editing features", that does not mean that they actually could deliver a competitive product.

  4. Still not sure I understand this

MP avatar
MPis predicting NO at 41%

@TaylorLapeyre which market share are u quoting?

TaylorLapeyre avatar
Taylor Lapeyreis predicting YES at 41%

@MP After a bit more rigorous googling, I think this is the most recent "source" I can find on market share — probably not 2% but something more like 10-15% https://twitter.com/GergelyOrosz/status/1633865322603094017?lang=en

CapitalHousecat avatar
Some Guybought Ṁ15 of NO

Bloomberg on the tape with DoJ set to sue to block.

MP avatar
MPis predicting NO at 73%

@CapitalHousecat of course they will, this market is so silly

TheColdTurtle avatar

Figma balls

TaylorLapeyre avatar
Taylor Lapeyre

This market seems poorly named. Suggest to rename: "Will Adobe close their acquisition of Figma by end of 2023?"

MP avatar
MPis predicting NO at 75%
MP avatar
MPis predicting NO at 75%

The DOJ is set to challenge the deal, Bloomberg reports.

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingbought Ṁ25 of YES

Base rate ~90%+

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