Will a world flipping event happen to a year end market by 2023 year end? (Market 1) - Tail risk hedge
Meta-marketsMeta-ForecastingNew Year's Resolutions 2024
Mini
22
แน€1.3k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

After some worries that /Joshua/will-nothing-ever-happen-by-hallowe , the end of year world flipping markets! Last year the pope death trigggered a response on /MP/will-there-be-any-surprise-world-ev-558fc73e0c15

Some conditions

  • The market deadline must be December 31st 2023 or January 1st 2024

  • At least 50 bettors before the world flipping event

  • The market must be trading consistently at 90% or above or 10% or below in the days that precede the event and then, suddenly, in a matter of hours, be resolved in the opposite direction

  • Metamarkets don't count

  • Personal markets don't count

  • Destiny markets don't count

  • Short term markets don't count

  • Multi-choice markets will only count if they are at 90%+

I won't bet. This market may require judgment. Second market:

Get แน€1,000 play money

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๐Ÿ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1แน€164
2แน€153
3แน€120
4แน€69
5แน€53
5 Comments
22 Holders
38 Trades
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Nothing ever happens

So far nothing, right?

Guys, I regret putting 95% or 5%. Just changed to 90% and 10%.

I'm making whole (inclusive of profits) anyone who wants

@MP 10%/90% as displayed rounded in the UI? Or does it have to be verified with the API it wasn't 10.1% or 89.9% etc?

Edit: not enough bettors for this one, in any case:

@chrisjbillington Consistently above 90% shouldn't be hard

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