Will a world flipping event happen to a year end market by 2023 year end? (Market 1) - Tail risk hedge
Will a world flipping event happen to a year end market by 2023 year end? (Market 1) - Tail risk hedge
22
808Ṁ1280
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

After some worries that Will Nothing Ever Happen By Halloween?NO‌ , the end of year world flipping markets! Last year the pope death trigggered a response on Will there be any surprise world events flipping an end-of-2022 market?YES‌

Some conditions

  • The market deadline must be December 31st 2023 or January 1st 2024

  • At least 50 bettors before the world flipping event

  • The market must be trading consistently at 90% or above or 10% or below in the days that precede the event and then, suddenly, in a matter of hours, be resolved in the opposite direction

  • Metamarkets don't count

  • Personal markets don't count

  • Destiny markets don't count

  • Short term markets don't count

  • Multi-choice markets will only count if they are at 90%+

I won't bet. This market may require judgment. Second market:

Meta-markets
Meta-Forecasting
New Year's Resolutions 2024
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ164
2Ṁ153
3Ṁ120
4Ṁ69
5Ṁ53

People are also trading


Sort by:
1y

Nothing ever happens

1y

So far nothing, right?

1y

Guys, I regret putting 95% or 5%. Just changed to 90% and 10%.

I'm making whole (inclusive of profits) anyone who wants

@MP 10%/90% as displayed rounded in the UI? Or does it have to be verified with the API it wasn't 10.1% or 89.9% etc?

Edit: not enough bettors for this one, in any case:

1y

@chrisjbillington Consistently above 90% shouldn't be hard

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

People are also trading

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy