From Matt Ygelzias:
Speaking at a fundraiser in Massachusetts last week, Joe Biden reportedly said that “If Trump wasn’t running, I’m not sure I’d be running, but we cannot let him win.”
This is probably just bluster. My strong suspicion is that even if Trump were to die unexpectedly of a heart attack tomorrow, throwing the GOP into chaos, Biden would still run for re-election.
If Trump unexpectedly doesn't run before the 2024 DNC, this market resolves whether the DNC nominates Joe Biden as candidate for president in 2024. This could mean death, or whatever reason that makes the mainstream media to report that Trump isn't running.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to N/A.
I will bet on this market.
Related questions
Does losing the primary count as "unexpectedly drops out"? Bc if that happens, it's very possible he could "stay in" despite losing the party nomination which wouldn't count as "drops out" technically, it seems. Maybe rephrase: "If Donald Trump is not the republican nominee for President for any reason, will Biden...." if that's what it means.
@LesterCrafton The chance that Trump, if alive, maybe even if not, will lose the party nomination is slim. If that were to happen, he is unlikely in the extreme to just go quietly. I'm happy to bet without further clarification.
@ClubmasterTransparent So this is basically a poll for “Will Donald Trump die or rendered otherwise incapacitated to the point where he is legally forced to resign from the race from his unconscious state?”
It’s quite likely that Trump loses the nomination. Iowa is way closer than it appears.
@MP Sort of. I doubt he'd concede the general election so I don't see him conceding the primary. Maybe he'll keep running anyway. And/or declare himself a non-Republican candidate He hasn't demonstrated a willingness to let the law be the boss of him.
@ClubmasterTransparent sure. But right now we have /BruceGrugett/will-donald-trump-be-the-republican , so anyway, would be unexpected
@MP Thanks, MP. You're the market creaator, so I'll take your word for it, but it's not obvious. When Trump loses his party's nomination process, he'll likely continue to run.
@LesterCrafton I'll correct it, but if he's a joke 3rd candidate with no chances of winning, this market also resolves