If there's a recession before election day 2024, will a Democrat win the presidential election?
If there's a recession before election day 2024, will a Democrat win the presidential election?
10
258Ṁ3406Sep 2
1%
chance
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ALL
If the National Bureau of Economic Analysis says that a recession started before election day 2024 and a Democrat wins the election, this market resolves to YES.
I'll wait until September 1st 2025 whether NBER calls a recession. Then I'll resolve to N/A.
I'll rely on whatever the consensus of news outlets calls the election for (AP, Fox News, CBS News, ABC News, and DecisionDeskHQ).
I may bet on this market.
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bought Ṁ300 NO3mo
This can only resolve NO or N/A now. @AndrewHebb you probably want to sell your YES shares.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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