How many votes the next speaker of the House will have from the opposing party to him?

#118th Congress #Speaker of the House election

239

Ṁ7.6k

Ṁ1.1k

resolved Oct 26

ALL

100%99.0%

0.1%

1-3

0.2%

4-8

0.2%

9-20

0.2%

20-50

0.3%

50+

HJ: "There are informal discussions for a bipartisan solution"

If the next speaker is a republican, this market resolves to the number of people in the democratic caucus that voted for her.

If the next speaker is a Democrat, this market resolves to the number of people in the republican conference that voted to her.

If the next speaker doesn't have a party, I'll use my judgement to say she caucus with a party.

I won't bet. This market will require judgement.

Get Ṁ600 play money

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8 Comments

23 Holders

73 Trades

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0, right?

bought Ṁ1,800 of 0 YES

@MP

raz degan isola 12 GIF by Isola dei Famosi

https://clerk.house.gov/Votes/2023527

Roll Call 527 Roll Call 527, Bill Number: , 118th Congress, 1st Session

VOTE QUESTION: Election of the Speaker, VOTE TYPE: Yea-And-Nay, STATUS: Johnson (LA)

bought Ṁ10 of 50+ YES

It'll either be 5-9, tempted with committee positions or other concessions, or a coalition with 50+. What scenario would lead to any of the other choices?

@robm a real whip doing his fucking job?

It pays to advertise, so here is another similar market to arbitrage this one. Thank you, MP!

@PGeyer https://manifold.markets/PGeyer/at-least-how-many-democrats-andor-i?r=UEdleWVy

At least how many Democrats and/or Independents will vote FOR the new Speaker of the House in the final floor vote?

It appears the Republicans have collectively boxed themselves in. It is a big leap for McHenry to cross the aisle hat in hand, but half a century ago, mature politicians did such things regularly. We all have purple shirts this season! Question will Resolve immediately after a new Speaker is chosen. If necessary, year-end cutoff will be extended. Please note the words at least, so multiple values may resolve to YES. If Republicans go it alone and successfully choose a Speaker, all answers resolve NO. Have at it!

@PGeyer didn't find your market previously

@MP Synergies! I’m brand new, so cross marketing can’t hurt. Walk before I run, right? Feel free to plug your market on mine. Whatever brings you participation is good for your operation, too, and can make for more refined predictions.