It probably will be catastrophic, but the chance of the media calling it catastrophic is certainly higher than the chance of it actually being catastrophic.

@Odoacre yes, but they need to call it weeks after the facts. This can lead to less heat reactions

@MP that's going to be the time of peak hysteria

@Odoacre 3 weeks? Idk

Guys, just to clarify. I plan to hold the "calling a catastrophe" to a high standard. It isn't enough to call it in the footnote of some news

@MP For comparison, would you say that the "catastrophic" requirement came true for Brexit?

@Gabrielle I'd likely have resolved Brexit to no

@MP considering the timeline just after January 2020.

Resolution criteria here seems pretty easily achieved - financial media calls a lot of things catastrophic, so I don't think a default has to reach the level of huge recession for this to resolve yes.

How do conditional markets work on Manifold?

@RobinGreen Might be up to the creator, but I'd say if the condition happens, then it resolves as normal. If the condition doesn't happen, then it resolves N/A. In the latter case you could make a market that resolves to itself, but that should be specified beforehand in my opinion.

@Mqrius exactly. I have been promoting features that require less mana in conditional markets, but there's none still.

@MP The loans help a little, though they're not specifically for conditional markets, just for anything that locks up Mana for a long time.