Resolution Criteria
This market resolves YES if the electoral list backed by the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) wins strictly more seats than every other individual electoral list in Serbia’s 2026 parliamentary election.
For resolution purposes, the “SNS-led list” means the officially certified electoral list that includes or is formally backed by the Serbian Progressive Party, regardless of its exact ballot or campaign name.
The market resolves NO if any other individual electoral list wins more seats than the SNS-led list.
If the SNS-led list ties another list for the largest number of seats, the market resolves NO, since SNS must hold the largest seat total outright.
Resolution will be based on the final official seat allocation published by Serbia’s Republic Electoral Commission (RIK).
Post-election coalitions, government-formation agreements, or the identity of the eventual prime minister do not affect resolution.
If the October 25 election is postponed but still takes place by December 31, 2026, the market will remain unresolved until the postponed parliamentary election is completed.
If no Serbian parliamentary election takes place by December 31, 2026, the market resolves N/A.
The market is intentionally scheduled to close well before election day, preserving a genuine forecasting window and reducing trading based on exit polls, early turnout signals, leaks, or results already beginning to emerge.
1,000People are also trading
How should bettors weigh the difference between the Ipsos, and NSPM polls?
Answer: about equally.
Here is a run-down on their recent poll performance.
In 2023, the most recent NSPM poll predicted 39.8% for the SNS coalition, while Ipsos predicted 44.6%; the actual result was 48%. This falls outside the margin of error, though Ipsos was closer.
In 2022, the predictions were similarly inaccurate, due to the unexpected rise of the SPS and the right-wing opposition.
In 2020, Ipsos predicted 58.6% and NSPM 58%, while the actual result was 60.65%. In this instance, NSPM was more reliable; their poll fell within their 3.1% margin of error (based on 1,000 respondents), whereas Ipsos’s did not, having a 1.6% margin of error (based on 3,600 respondents).
Ipsos: 1 favorable, 1 near miss, 1 miss
NSPM: 1 on the mark, 2 misses
Thus, their track record has a similar reliability.
However, bettors should keep in mind that the recent Ipsos poll was paid for by the request of SNS, and that NSPM is an anti-Vucic outlet.
@Lilemont Thanks for the detailed breakdown! Very useful comparison.
I agree that neither pollster should be taken at face value, especially given their potential political biases.
One interesting question, though: even if SNS loses significant support, could it still finish as the largest individual list simply because the opposition vote is fragmented?
I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on that.
@MAKER no, the opposition will be very united this time. You can see it by looking at the ratings of classic opposition lists/parties. They'll fight to reach the qualifying threshold (3%). I live in Serbia, so I am biased, but tbh I will be not surprised to see a landslide victory of Students.