Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if the electoral list backed by the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) wins strictly more seats than every other individual electoral list in Serbia’s 2026 parliamentary election.

For resolution purposes, the “SNS-led list” means the officially certified electoral list that includes or is formally backed by the Serbian Progressive Party, regardless of its exact ballot or campaign name.

The market resolves NO if any other individual electoral list wins more seats than the SNS-led list.

If the SNS-led list ties another list for the largest number of seats, the market resolves NO, since SNS must hold the largest seat total outright.

Resolution will be based on the final official seat allocation published by Serbia’s Republic Electoral Commission (RIK).

Post-election coalitions, government-formation agreements, or the identity of the eventual prime minister do not affect resolution.

If the October 25 election is postponed but still takes place by December 31, 2026, the market will remain unresolved until the postponed parliamentary election is completed.

If no Serbian parliamentary election takes place by December 31, 2026, the market resolves N/A.

The market is intentionally scheduled to close well before election day, preserving a genuine forecasting window and reducing trading based on exit polls, early turnout signals, leaks, or results already beginning to emerge.