See also "Will Odessa fall before 2023?" https://manifold.markets/M/will-odessa-fall-before-2023-322eeb61935c
This question will resolve positively if it is publicly reported by at least three of the following 7 sources (The Economist, The New York Times, Reuters, The Associated Press, The Guardian, The BBC, Al Jazeera) or from direct statements from at least two Permanent UNSC members (excluding Russia) that Odessa is under Russian military control. If this event does not happen by the end of 2022, this question will resolve negatively.
I am going to exclude from "reported" posted as result of hacking etc.
If Odessa falls before end of 2022 but it is reported later it resolves as YES (in case if fighting market resolving may be delayed)
If Odessa falls and is retaken - it resolves as YES
Sep 12, 2:58pm:
1,000Sorry, on review of what I am doing I decided to shutdown Manifold account. Resolving my markets as NA seems the fairest solution to people active on them.
- I decided to spend my time in a better way and Manifold is one of
things that I decided to eliminate in the ongoing owerview
- Daily bonus was effective, to the point of being scary, intrusive and
unwelcome
- Inability to block and hide unwanted markets/groups makes it
obnoxious to see some markets. Every time I read title of
https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-scott-alexander-write-an-acx-b
I die a bit inside and question what I am doing with my life