Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will Hurricane Gaston be Category 3 or higher?
3
Ṁ120Ṁ250
resolved Sep 27
Resolved
NO
The seventh named storm in the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Atlantic_hurricane_season) will be "Gaston". This market resolves to YES if that storm is classified on the Saffir–Simpson scale as Category 3, 4, or 5. Resolves to NO otherwise.
Market context
Science
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ29
2Ṁ16

People are also trading

Sort by:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/al08/al082022.discus.023.shtml
Convection did not reform over Gaston and it weakened for the final time before being declared a post-tropical cyclone at 03:00 UTC on September 26.

Resolving as NO.

predictedNO

@thebaysix This is ready to be resolved to "no": https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1574225764169285632

Tropical storm Gaston may strengthen over the next day or so but is then expected to weaken by a couple days from now. I'm not sure it will even become a hurricane.

Gaston is the next storm. There's roughly a 30-45% chance that a given storm in September will be a hurricane, and an even smaller chance that it will be a Cat 3 or higher. So, while it's possible that it could be a Cat 3 or higher, I think the chance of that happening is substantially less than 50%.

Base rate seems to be quite low, especially that early in the season. However, if there's a category 3+ before we get to G then I'd update much higher upwards.

People are also trading