Which bold predictions will come true during the 2024 MLB season?

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The average age of MLB batters, weighted by plate appearances, will be lower than in any season since the 1970s (i.e. <27.91 yrs)

1.6%

Sixto Sánchez will become the first player to earn Rookie of the Year votes in non-consecutive seasons

Two Texas Rangers will finish in the Top 5 in AL MVP voting

Resolved

YES

Shohei Ohtani will steal more bases than the total of the number of games he's suspended (if any) + the number of open media sessions he attends during the season

Resolved

YES

The four "Jacksons" (Holliday, Jobe, Chourio, Merrill) will produce more fWAR than the four "jacked sons" (Yandy Díaz, Tyler O'Neill, Adolis García, Michael Lorenzen)

Resolved

YES

The regular-season schedule will end with the first-ever three-way tie for a playoff spot

Resolved

YES

The top pick in the 2024 amateur draft will not be Dub Gleed, Michael Massey, Ethan Petry, or Marek Houston

Resolved

YES

The Orioles will make the postseason, but will be swept out of their first postseason series

Resolved

YES

At least one of the Giants' free agent additions from the 2023–24 offseason will have a higher fWAR than Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Resolved

YES

The second semifinal of the Home Run Derby will go to a tiebreaker

Resolved

YES

There will be at least one ejection in the Super Regional round of the NCAA tournament, but none in the College World Series

Resolved

YES

Patrick Bailey will be the first player in the 2020s to put up 30 runs of defensive value according to Fangraphs

Resolved

YES

Shota Imanaga will finish with a higher fWAR than Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Resolved

YES

Either Hagen Smith (Arkansas), Chase Burns (Wake Forest), or both will surpass the 15.3 K/9 achieved by Paul Skenes in 2023

On Episode 2143 of the Effectively Wild podcast, Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, Ben Clemens, and Michael Baumann each made 10 "bold" predictions about baseball in 2024. Which ones will come true?

Source: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-2143-the-2024-preseason-predictions-game/

Most of, but not all, the predictions are about the MLB season itself. Some are about college baseball. But they will all be resolved by the end of November.

Resolution arbitration of all 40 questions will be determined by official MLB results, the Effectively Wild prediction contest, and the Associated Press.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Oneil Cruz will receive MVP votes, but still finish behind Elly De La Cruz

bought Ṁ304 Oneil Cruz will rece... NO

@LukeW and NO

Sixto Sánchez will become the first player to earn Rookie of the Year votes in non-consecutive seasons

@LukeW and NO

Two Texas Rangers will finish in the Top 5 in AL MVP voting

@LukeW NO

bought Ṁ133 Answer #dde339dad302 NO

@LukeW Resolves NO; Sale and Skubal each had 18 wins, and nobody else matched them.

@LukeW Resolves NO; the Cy Young Awards went to Chis Sale and Tarik Skubal.

Resolved all the ones not involving award voting (with the exception of the age weighted by PAs one, I have no idea how to calculate that so I'll wait for EW to mention it on the podcast).

@LukeW with the tigers eliminated this can be resolved

The four "Jacksons" (Holliday, Jobe, Chourio, Merrill) will produce more fWAR than the four "jacked sons" (Yandy Díaz, Tyler O'Neill, Adolis García, Michael Lorenzen)

@LukeW Holliday: 0.0, Jobe: 0.0, Churio 3.9, Merrill 5.3 -- approx. 9.2

Diaz: 1.9, O'Neill 2.5, Garcia -0.2, Lorenzen 0.7 -- approx 4.9

The four "Jacksons" (Holliday, Jobe, Chourio, Merrill) will produce more fWAR than the four "jacked sons" (Yandy Díaz, Tyler O'Neill, Adolis García, Michael Lorenzen)

oops

bought Ṁ172 Answer #b5d380160f04 NO

@LukeW resolves NO

@R2D2sm5g done

The four "Jacksons" (Holliday, Jobe, Chourio, Merrill) will produce more fWAR than the four "jacked sons" (Yandy Díaz, Tyler O'Neill, Adolis García, Michael Lorenzen)

@LukeW resolves YES

@R2D2sm5g I haven't added up the WARs on this yet. If you can provided the evidence, please do. Otherwise I'll get to it soon.

@LukeW yeah no worries take your time

i just did a quick estimation -- don't think it's particularly close.

The Orioles will make the postseason, but will be swept out of their first postseason series

Just as the prophecy foretold. Resolves yes.

The Orioles will make the postseason, but will be swept out of their first postseason series

@LukeW eyes emoji

The Orioles will make the postseason, but will be swept out of their first postseason series

O's lost Game 1 in the best of 3! Which means this WILL resolve tomorrow.

OK I believe I've resolved all the ones resolvable so far. The rest will depend on playoffs, award voting, and various odds and ends (like Ohtani open media sessions, I don't know how many he's at, though that one seems unlikely to resolve NO haha).

There will be at least one ejection in the Super Regional round of the NCAA tournament, but none in the College World Series

Jack Crighton of Clemson

At least one of the Giants' free agent additions from the 2023–24 offseason will have a higher fWAR than Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Snell beat Yamamoto, for one. Resolves YES.

Alejandro Kirk will post the highest wRC+ among AL primary catchers to record 300+ PA

Nope. Willson Contreras topped the board. Kirk was 14th.

The Orioles will make the postseason, but will be swept out of their first postseason series

This could resolve today, we'll see...

The lowest attendance for any OAK home game this year was 2895. Resolves NO.
source: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/OAK/2024-schedule-scores.shtml

@LukeW 1.3 for Lynn> 0.4 for deGrom

Shota Imanaga will finish with a higher fWAR than Yoshinobu Yamamoto

@LukeW it was close but imanaga held on 3.0 > 2.8

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