Which bold predictions will come true during the 2024 MLB season?
21
1.5kṀ11kresolved Nov 26
Resolved
YESShohei Ohtani will steal more bases than the total of the number of games he's suspended (if any) + the number of open media sessions he attends during the season
Resolved
YESThe four "Jacksons" (Holliday, Jobe, Chourio, Merrill) will produce more fWAR than the four "jacked sons" (Yandy Díaz, Tyler O'Neill, Adolis García, Michael Lorenzen)
Resolved
YESThe regular-season schedule will end with the first-ever three-way tie for a playoff spot
Resolved
YESThe top pick in the 2024 amateur draft will not be Dub Gleed, Michael Massey, Ethan Petry, or Marek Houston
Resolved
YESThe Orioles will make the postseason, but will be swept out of their first postseason series
Resolved
YESAt least one of the Giants' free agent additions from the 2023–24 offseason will have a higher fWAR than Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Resolved
YESThe second semifinal of the Home Run Derby will go to a tiebreaker
Resolved
YESThere will be at least one ejection in the Super Regional round of the NCAA tournament, but none in the College World Series
Resolved
YESPatrick Bailey will be the first player in the 2020s to put up 30 runs of defensive value according to Fangraphs
Resolved
YESShota Imanaga will finish with a higher fWAR than Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Resolved
YESEither Hagen Smith (Arkansas), Chase Burns (Wake Forest), or both will surpass the 15.3 K/9 achieved by Paul Skenes in 2023
Resolved
NOGabriel Moreno will finish the season as the most valuable starting catcher in the National League
Resolved
NOJordan Montgomery will be unsigned as of Opening Day, but will still finish in the Top 5 of Cy Young voting
Resolved
NOThe Seattle Mariners will not be no-hit or one-hit
Resolved
NOAlejandro Kirk will post the highest wRC+ among AL primary catchers to record 300+ PA
Resolved
NOJoey Votto will out-homer 2022 Albert Pujols (24)
Resolved
NOThe Atlanta Braves will win at least 49 more games than the Chicago White Sox
Resolved
NONo pitcher will reach 200 IP in the regular season
Resolved
NOThe Angels will win more games this season than they did in any year with Shohei Ohtani on the team (i.e. >80 wins)
Resolved
NOThe average per-team stolen-base total will be the highest since the 1980s
On Episode 2143 of the Effectively Wild podcast, Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, Ben Clemens, and Michael Baumann each made 10 "bold" predictions about baseball in 2024. Which ones will come true?
Source: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-2143-the-2024-preseason-predictions-game/
Most of, but not all, the predictions are about the MLB season itself. Some are about college baseball. But they will all be resolved by the end of November.
Resolution arbitration of all 40 questions will be determined by official MLB results, the Effectively Wild prediction contest, and the Associated Press.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ385 | |
| 2 | Ṁ192 | |
| 3 | Ṁ90 | |
| 4 | Ṁ85 | |
| 5 | Ṁ80 |