Which bold predictions will come true during the 2024 MLB season?

#Sports #Baseball #MLB #College Baseball #Effectively Wild

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90%

The top pick in the 2024 amateur draft will not be Dub Gleed, Michael Massey, Ethan Petry, or Marek Houston

67%

There will be a viral or semi-viral moment involving a screenshot of a player's nipples, gooch and/or butthole, or the outline of their penis and/or testicles being visible through their uniform during a broadcast

60%

At least one of the Giants' free agent additions from the 2023–24 offseason will have a higher fWAR than Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto

56%

The Seattle Mariners will not be no-hit or one-hit

52%

Shota Imanaga will finish with a higher fWAR than Yoshinobu Yamamoto

50%

Sixto Sánchez will become the first player to earn Rookie of the Year votes in non-consecutive seasons

50%

A relief pitcher (50%+ appearances in relief) will win as many games as one of the Cy Young winners

50%

At least one position player drafted in July will play in the 2024 regular season or postseason

48%

There will be at least one ejection in the Super Regional round of the NCAA tournament, but none in the College World Series

46%

The average age of MLB batters, weighted by plate appearances, will be lower than in any season since the 1970s (i.e. <27.91 yrs)

46%

Shohei Ohtani will steal more bases than the total of the number of games he's suspended (if any) + the number of open media sessions he attends during the season

46%

Either Hagen Smith (Arkansas), Chase Burns (Wake Forest), or both will surpass the 15.3 K/9 achieved by Paul Skenes in 2023

46%

At least one active MLB player will issue an apology in a press release for comments made on social media about the 2024 election or issues related thereto

41%

Two Texas Rangers will finish in the Top 5 in AL MVP voting

39%

No player will reach 8 fWAR

38%

The average per-team stolen-base total will be the highest since the 1980s

38%

Joey Votto will out-homer 2022 Albert Pujols (24)

36%

Jacob deGrom will finish with a higher fWAR than Lance Lynn

34%

The four "Jacksons" (Holliday, Jobe, Chourio, Merrill) will produce more fWAR than the four "jacked sons" (Yandy Díaz, Tyler O'Neill, Adolis García, Michael Lorenzen)

33%

Patrick Bailey will be the first player in the 2020s to put up 30 runs of defensive value according to Fangraphs

On Episode 2143 of the Effectively Wild podcast, Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, Ben Clemens, and Michael Baumann each made 10 "bold" predictions about baseball in 2024. Which ones will come true?

Source: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-2143-the-2024-preseason-predictions-game/

Most of, but not all, the predictions are about the MLB season itself. Some are about college baseball. But they will all be resolved by the end of the MLB World Series in early November.

Resolution arbitration of all 40 questions will be determined by official MLB results, the Effectively Wild prediction contest, and the Associated Press.

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