Which bold predictions will come true during the 2024 MLB season?
21
1.5kṀ11k
resolved Nov 26
Resolved
YES
Shohei Ohtani will steal more bases than the total of the number of games he's suspended (if any) + the number of open media sessions he attends during the season
Resolved
YES
The four "Jacksons" (Holliday, Jobe, Chourio, Merrill) will produce more fWAR than the four "jacked sons" (Yandy Díaz, Tyler O'Neill, Adolis García, Michael Lorenzen)
Resolved
YES
The regular-season schedule will end with the first-ever three-way tie for a playoff spot
Resolved
YES
The top pick in the 2024 amateur draft will not be Dub Gleed, Michael Massey, Ethan Petry, or Marek Houston
Resolved
YES
The Orioles will make the postseason, but will be swept out of their first postseason series
Resolved
YES
At least one of the Giants' free agent additions from the 2023–24 offseason will have a higher fWAR than Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Resolved
YES
The second semifinal of the Home Run Derby will go to a tiebreaker
Resolved
YES
There will be at least one ejection in the Super Regional round of the NCAA tournament, but none in the College World Series
Resolved
YES
Patrick Bailey will be the first player in the 2020s to put up 30 runs of defensive value according to Fangraphs
Resolved
YES
Shota Imanaga will finish with a higher fWAR than Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Resolved
YES
Either Hagen Smith (Arkansas), Chase Burns (Wake Forest), or both will surpass the 15.3 K/9 achieved by Paul Skenes in 2023
Resolved
NO
Gabriel Moreno will finish the season as the most valuable starting catcher in the National League
Resolved
NO
Jordan Montgomery will be unsigned as of Opening Day, but will still finish in the Top 5 of Cy Young voting
Resolved
NO
The Seattle Mariners will not be no-hit or one-hit
Resolved
NO
Alejandro Kirk will post the highest wRC+ among AL primary catchers to record 300+ PA
Resolved
NO
Joey Votto will out-homer 2022 Albert Pujols (24)
Resolved
NO
The Atlanta Braves will win at least 49 more games than the Chicago White Sox
Resolved
NO
No pitcher will reach 200 IP in the regular season
Resolved
NO
The Angels will win more games this season than they did in any year with Shohei Ohtani on the team (i.e. >80 wins)
Resolved
NO
The average per-team stolen-base total will be the highest since the 1980s

On Episode 2143 of the Effectively Wild podcast, Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, Ben Clemens, and Michael Baumann each made 10 "bold" predictions about baseball in 2024. Which ones will come true?

Source: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-2143-the-2024-preseason-predictions-game/

Most of, but not all, the predictions are about the MLB season itself. Some are about college baseball. But they will all be resolved by the end of November.

Resolution arbitration of all 40 questions will be determined by official MLB results, the Effectively Wild prediction contest, and the Associated Press.

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