How many Major League Baseball teams will win 100+ games in the 2025 regular season?
19
100Ṁ1618
resolved Sep 24
100%95%
0
4%
1
0.7%
2
0.6%
3 or more

Self-explanatory. I will happily detail more if requested, but I figure anyone betting on this market can count wins. Cheers.

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Brewers were shut out by the Fathers tonight for loss # 63. MLB has zero 100-win teams this season.

Week-ish left, and the Brewerscan only afford one more loss.

If the Brewers hit 63 in the L column before the 30th, I’ll resolve for 0.

5 wins needed 5 games remaining.
Win % 60.5%

0.605^5 = 0.08
2 games against Padres, 3 against Reds
Both are above 50% for season and 6-4 in last 10 games, so percentage for 0 teams getting 100 or more wins should be over 92%?

@ChristopherRandles I don’t bet on my own markets or I’d adjust accordingly. That math maths for sure, though

Current projected 100-win teams based on records through August 14, 2025:

Milwaukee Brewers, 103-59

Let's take a look at how much the previous comment from May has changed:

Dodgers, now projected to finish 91-71 (-22)
Mets, now projected to finish 86-76 (-22)
Padres, now projected to finish 92-70 (-16)
Cubs, now projected to finish 92-70 (-8)
Giants, now projected to finish 79-83 (-21)
Tigers, now projected to finish 93-69 (-7)

By contrast, the Brewers, through May 3, were 16-18, projected to finish with a record of 76-86. They reached their projected win total from May 3 last night... haha. Ok, I might be the only person who thinks that's funny, but anyway, they've improved +27 from where they were three months ago. Just goes to show you 162 games is a long, long time.

Current projected 100-win teams based on records through May 3, 2025:

All calculations based on these teams maintaining the current won-loss record through the entire 2025 season, decimals rounded accordingly.

Los Angeles Dodgers (113-49)
New York Mets (108-54)
San Diego Padres (106-56)
Cubs, Giants, Tigers (100-62)

bought Ṁ10 YES

I made a market that is similar that you should check out https://manifold.markets/FRA_ZachL/what-team-will-have-the-best-winlos

From previous seasons:

2024: 0

2023: 3

2022: 4

2021: 3

2020 (shortened season)

2019: 4

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