Which teams will make it to the 2025 MLB Postseason?
Only 8 teams will Resolve YES here, as winning the wild card will not be sufficient for a YES Resolution, teams need to make the Division Series to count.
Note: Regardless if teams move cities during the 2024-2025 offseason, your vote for them will still count.
Also bet on the World Series winner here:
1,000
3.00This market was way too rich in "Yes" - I just took a no position on ~every team and the expected value is still 10 teams making the playoffs.
I turned https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-power-rankings-inaugural-2025-edition these power rankings into scores from 2 to 8, averaging 5 - white sox at 2, dodgers at 8. I got the schedule from this guy https://www.reddit.com/r/mlb/comments/1e6mrv0/2025_mlb_schedule_spreadsheet/. To simulate a game, I pick randomly from 0 to (team1 + team2), and if the number is < team1, team 1 wins. Did the same for the wild card 5-game series. In case my power rankings were wrong, I also added or subtracted 1 at random, 25% +1 25% -1, before each season. Ran 1000 samples of this to get the probabilities. Partial results:
Dodgers 84%
Yankees 74%
Braves 61%
Phillies 59%
Mets 58%
Astros 57%
Orioles 49%
Brewers 41%
Other takeaways, that the schedule simulation adds to the power ranking:
- The AL west is full of middle-of-the-road teams, the Astros (power level 6) drop from 67% to 57% when I added power ranking randomness, because the Rangers and Mariners are both power level 5.
- The Yankees are punching way above their (power level 7) weight class with 74%. The other three teams on that level are the Braves, Mets and Phillies - and they're all in the same division, which is kind of crazy. Thanks, wild card!
@creator please change the description here to reflect that teams need to make it to the division series. The wild card round is officially part of the postseason.