Background

The UK and France have multiple bilateral agreements aimed at reducing Channel crossings, including increased patrols, surveillance technology, and joint operations. However, there is currently no formal mechanism for systematically returning migrant boats to France. French vessels have sometimes been observed escorting boats into UK waters, and migrants are often brought to the UK by Border Force or Coastguard after being encountered in the Channel.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if:

• For a continuous period of at least 30 days before 2030

• The majority (>50%) of migrant boats attempting to cross the Channel from France to the UK are intercepted and returned to France

• This policy is officially acknowledged and consistently implemented by both UK and French authorities

The market will resolve NO if:

• No such period of consistent returns occurs before 2030

• The policy is implemented but not maintained for at least 30 consecutive days

• Returns happen sporadically but do not constitute a majority of attempted crossings

Considerations

• Implementation would likely require new bilateral agreements between the UK and France

• Previous attempts at return policies have faced legal challenges under international maritime law and refugee conventions

• Changes in government leadership in either country could significantly impact immigration policies

• The policy would need to address safety concerns and legal obligations for rescue operations at sea