Background

IP17 is a voter initiative that proposes creating an annual rebate for every Oregonian (including children). The rebate would be funded by increasing the minimum tax rate for Oregon corporations with $25 million+ in sales from less than 1% to 3%. The taxed amount would be made availyas either a tax credit or a cash payment and be evenly divided among all Oregon residents who have resided in Oregon for at least 200 days provided the amount is greater than $25. (If the amount is less then $25/residents, the taxes amount is redistributed to social programs). The rebate would not be taxable, means-tested, or affect eligibility for income-based benefits.

Supporters of the measure estimate that the rebate amount would be ~$750 / resident the first year.

[0] Oregon Rebate Website

[1] IP17 Full Text

See also: Oregon 2024 Election Dashboard

Market Resolution

This is a forecasting market. Market closes when polls close (8 PM PST)

The market will resolve to one answer based on

• If the ballot measure passes or fails

• The margin by which it passes or fails

Margin will be determined by the percentage of voters that were for or against the measure.

(Majority Voters / Total Votes) = Margin

The market will resolve N/A if:

• The ballot measure is withdrawn

The market will resolve based on certified results from the Oregon Secretary of State. Market closes on 5 Nov 2024; market resolution may be delayed until data is released. Oregon Law requires that any ballot measure receive an affirmative majority so in case of a 50/50 tie, the measure will have failed. [0]

[0] ORS 254.065 (2)

Related Markets

Disclaimer

I do not bet on markets I create in order to avoid motivated reasoning. In the event that I am unable or unavailable to resolve the market, the market may be resolved by Manifold Mods. Any changes to the market description will be noted in the change log.