Related Markets
Background
The petition requires 117,173 verified signatures to qualify for the ballot. As of 18 Dec 2023, the petition has reported a total of 21,468 signatures [0]. Petitioners are require to submit signatures monthly. The last deadline to submit signatures is 28 Jun 2024.
Update: As of 1 Feb 2024, the petition has reported 25,410 signatures (22%)
Update: As of 26 Mar 2024, the petition has reported 31,079 signatures (27%)
Update: As of 29 April 2024, the petition has reported 31,539 signatures (27%)
[0] OR SOS IP 11 Reporting Info
Ballot Title: Establishes new voting method: voters score candidates from zero to five stars
Ballot Summary: Measure establishes new voting method in which voters score all candidates from zero (worst) to five (best) stars, instead of casting single vote for an office. Equally scores allowed; blank scores considered zero.
Candidates' total stars across all ballots counted to determine two highest-scoring finalists. After finalists identified, each ballot counts as one vote for whichever finalists received more stars on that ballot. Finalist with most votes wins. In multi-seat elections, process repeats until seats filled. Includes tie-breaker provisions. Authorities Secretary of State to adopt rules.
Applies to primary and general elections for president, congress, and state offices. Applies to local government elections unless a different method applied. Primary elections for nonpartisan elections eliminated unless jurisdiction chooses otherwise. Ballots include information about process.
Market Resolution
Market resolves YES if:
IP 11 successfully gathers the requied signatures and appears on the 2024 Primary Election ballot
Market resolves NO if:
IP 11 fails to gather the required signatures
IP 11 is withdrawn
Market will resolved based on certification by the Oregon Secretary of State
Disclaimer
I do not bet on markets I create in order to avoid motivated reasoning. Any changes to market description will be noted in a change log.
1,000
3.00Checked the OR IRR database today and IP11 is not listed as "qualified for ballot". Resolving this market NO
@traders - updated signature counts. Here's a chart of total signature count with a linear regression out to June
@traders - Updated signature count and here's a graph of total signatures over time with a linear regression out to June
@LukasDay Sad. 😢 Also FairVote is now actively attacking the Eugene STAR Voting ballot measure. After seeing what they did in Seattle, I'm not optimistic.
27,957 signatures as of Feb 1 [edit: wrong]
@MaxGhenis - created a script for scraping signature totals for easier tallying and I discovered I made a mistake in the total for this market. the current total is 25,410 rather than 27,957. The description has been corrected.
😕
Related, but for whether it passes in Eugene Oregon in May once it's on their ballot https://manifold.markets/kenakofer/will-star-voting-pass-in-eugene-ore?r=a2VuYWtvZmVy