When will Australia no longer burn fossil fuels for grid electricity?
When will Australia no longer burn fossil fuels for grid electricity?
8
345Ṁ2902050
10%
Before 2030
23%
2030-2034
18%
2035-2039
27%
2040-2049
22%
2050 or later (including never)
Australia must go a significant length of time (at least 6 months) without fossil fuels being burned for grid electricity production (<1% of total electricity production). There must be no planned turning back on of coal/gas plants later (keeping plants mothballed is fine).
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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