[I promise not to bet on this market.]
I'm starting a YouTube channel. I want a prediction of what the maximum number of views I will get on a single video is.
The video must be published in 2023. Therefore the "Abed and Annie Kiss" and "How to program FizzBuzz in Lisp (Hy)" videos don't count.
----- Nitpicky details below -----
If the number of views I get exceeds the predictable range, then this market resolves to the maximum bettable amount.
This is the channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCL1ifsAgPAgoQMinTLncqAg
If I change channels then I will update this market description and this resolution will refer to the new one.
Background context: I have been writing a blog for a few years.
https://www.lsusr.com/
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ54 | |
| 2 | Ṁ18 | |
| 3 | Ṁ14 | |
| 4 | Ṁ0 | |
| 5 | Ṁ0 |
People are also trading
Some stuff I did researching for my bet:
Your most viewed YouTube video to date is "Abed and Annie Kiss" which has 567 views as of the time of writing.
To estimate the size of your audience on LessWrong, I looked at your LessWrong profile where the most upvotes you've gotten this year is 36 (though last year you did once get up to 195). Dividing by a typical engagement rate of 1% and rounding gives me a very rough and dirty estimate of ~4K views (this could be off in either direction since the engagement rate can be higher, and some votes could have been strong upvotes, but whatever; I did this since I couldn't get pageview data for your blog or lesswrong posts directly). But I'd discount this further since only a small fraction who reads your lesswrong posts will go to your youtube account; ass-pulling a guess of a quarter (which I validated by asking ChatGPT an ultra-genericized version of this question) gives me a guess of ~1K views.
These two things combined suggests that you might be able to get into the low thousands, but likely not much higher.
@duck_master Thank you! This is exactly the kind of thing I wanted to find out by creating this market.