Do you mean actually independent, or are you counting third party candidates?

@AndrewHartman I was including third party in independent . I mostly see independent meaning not the big two.

@LoydWeldy In american political parlance, this is really not what independent means, but I've noticed a surprising number of folks who use it this way.

In that case, then, there's two major ways this resolves YES: a major political figure decides to go independent (or for their own party) and run, or one of the third parties (almost certainly the libertarians since nobody else ever gets close) manages to pull down 5%. The highest any third party ever secured in recent electoral history was libertarians with ~3%.

I think folks betting on the "trump runs independent" route are probably tossing their money into a furnace, but I think there's a semi-credible route to 5% for the LP if the two least popular presidents in american history square off for a rematch.

@AndrewHartman I also made the below if you think the trump route is not it. When I first made the poll I was thinking this might be the year a third party makes a mark for exactly the reason you outline.

This market seems mostly : will trump run as an independent

@Fedor Yep lol