Will a single independent candidate (barring Trump) get more than 5% of the pop vote in the 2024 US Pres election?
Plus
23
Ṁ5570resolved Nov 13
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
If trump runs as independepentant and gets more than 5% of vote while no other independent does then resolves to NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will a single independent candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential election?
1% chance
Will third-party candidates receive 5% or more of the presidential vote in 2024?
1% chance
Will a candidate that is neither backed by the Republican Party or the Democratic Party run in the 2024 United States presidential election and receive at least 5% of the national popular vote?
2% chance
Will any candidate win a majority of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
1% chance
Will an Independent candidate receive 1+ electoral votes in 2024 Presidential Election?
2% chance
Would the independent party US president nominees (combine if there is more than 1) gets more than 20% of popular vote?
11% chance
Will any candidate receive a record number of votes in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
52% chance
Will a third party candidate receive an electoral college vote in 2024?
1% chance
[Metaculus] Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote...US presidential election?
1% chance
Will a third-party or independent candidate win any state in the 2024 or 2028 US presidential elections?
8% chance