Will you use Truth Predict when it goes online?
2
100Ṁ61
Dec 31
28%
chance

I'll search for information about Truth Predict to provide context for this market.#### Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if you actively use Truth Predict (place at least one trade or bet) after it launches. This market resolves NO if Truth Predict launches but you do not use it, or if Truth Predict fails to launch within 12 months of this market's creation. Resolution is based on your own report of your usage.

Background

Truth Predict is a prediction market feature that will let users place bets on real-world events including U.S. elections, Federal Reserve rate decisions, sports games and commodity prices, using a federally compliant exchange operated by Crypto.com's Derivatives exchange, which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Beta testing is expected to begin on Truth Social in the near future, followed by a full launch in the United States. Truth Predict will compete with established prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Considerations

Prediction markets remain a gray area in US law and regulations, with platforms like Kalshi currently fighting state regulators over whether betting on events via prediction markets counts as gambling or qualifies as financial market activity. Regulatory delays could affect the launch timeline.

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Does this mean robust expert descriptions and resolutions on all questions?

Resolution seems nonsensical, wanna clarify?

@rayman2000 I guess a poll is used and then the question is resolved? It should say in the question though.

@rayman2000 This is the same nonsense as https://manifold.markets/Louis_Z/will-you-use-robinhoods-prediction . Given the first line of each ("I'll search for information about Truth Predict to provide context for this market.") I'm guessing OP copy-pasted a LLM's output.

Will you use Robinhood's prediction markets in 2025?
54% chance. I'll search for information about Robinhood's prediction markets to provide relevant context for this market.#### Resolution criteria This market resolves YES if you make at least one trade (buy or sell) on Robinhood's prediction markets platform during 2025. This includes any event contracts offered through the Robinhood app, whether on sports, economics, politics, or other categories. The resolution is based on your account activity and trading history on Robinhood's platform. Background Robinhood launched its prediction markets hub in March 2025, allowing users to trade event contracts. Since launch, more than 2 billion contracts have been traded on the platform. Customers can trade on outcomes of popular pro and college football games, including all regular season pro matchups and all college Power 4 schools, as well as contracts across crypto, economics, financials, sports, culture, and more. Prediction markets are offered through a CFTC regulated exchange. Update 2025-11-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve YES for each individual trader who makes at least one trade on Robinhood's prediction markets in 2025, and NO for each trader who does not. Each participant's shares will resolve based on their own personal trading activity on Robinhood.

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