Will the Tontine surviving player count be 357 (1/20) or less as of 2023-9-23?
23
resolved Sep 23
Resolved
NO

https://tontine.cash/ is a MSCHF game. On 2021-12-27, 7141 players each paid $10 into a central pot and have been required to check in at least once a day by midnight EST/EDT or else be eliminated. The last remaining player will win the pot. As of 2023-4-3, 485 players remain.

The market resolves YES if the living count is 357 (1/20 of the original population) or less as of 12:05 AM EST on 2023-9-23, and NO if the living count is 358 or more at that time. It resolves early to YES if the living population should fall to or below 357 before that time, and to N/A if the game is canceled for any reason.

Get αΉ€500 play money

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ChristopherRandles avatar
Christopher Randlesbought αΉ€3,000 of NO

365

LIVING

6.7K

DEAD

635

DAYS

ChristopherRandles avatar
Christopher Randlesbought αΉ€5 of YES

20 days to go, 15 needed, 17 in last 20 days

That 17 feels a bit cherrypicked having a 4 near beginning and a 3 at end. But even discounting the 3 in last day, the rate has increased from a low of 7 to 14, a doubling of rate, and 15 needed is only 1 more than 14. Increases in rate do occur and it is unclear how much higher they can go.

Probably should be less than a 50% chance, but 4% seemed way too low. So I have largely sold out of my no holdings.