The market resolves YES if Team Fortress 2 receives one or more updates with new non-cosmetic content - new weapons, new map types/game modes, a new merc - by the end of 2023. It resolves NO if Gaben continues to operate on Valve Time.
Clarification: just as merely adopting existing community maps wouldn't count for the purposes of this question, neither will merely adopting an existing community mode. Valve must create fully new content - an update-sized update, if you will - in order for this market to resolve YES.
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@asmith Given that I wouldn't count adoption of existing community maps, I don't plan to resolve YES just for adoption of existing community modes.
To head things off now, I'm going to say that the market will resolve NO if the only new map type/content is a holiday event mode. Should other similar edge cases happen, I'll open discussion on how I should resolve.
@asmith Specifically a new type of map. Officially adopting community maps or releasing their own new map for (say) CTF or KOTH would not count. If they released a new game mode and maps for it, that would count.