Lorxus prepared their math doctoral thesis for submission as a paper to Journal, the journal their then-advisor recommended. In February 2021, they posted a preprint to arxiv. They defended their thesis successfully - the topic was geometric group theory - sent off the paper, was preliminarily accepted, went back and forth with revisions for most of the first half of 2022, sent off what was intended to be a final revision, and hasn't heard back from Reviewer in almost a year.
Lorxus currently lives in [Fox City], a mid-sized city in the northeast US, where the university hosting their postdoctoral program is located, and where Editor, the journal's editor, works, right across the hall from Lorxus. The two are on cordial terms, and Editor claims to have been repeatedly messaging Reviewer to try to get them to review the paper.
Lorxus's postdoc position will end in July, and they don't expect that they'll be rehired by the university.
Thus do we ask: will Lorxus's paper appear as a submission in Journal before Lorxus ups stakes, leaves their den, and moves to a different city to pursue a different opportunity, or the year 2024 arrives?
The market resolves early to YES if the paper is accepted for publication in Journal before Lorxus moves house next, and NO if 2024 rolls around and Lorxus still hasn't had their (basically finished) paper published.
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@Lorxus oh dude I didn't know you could request a new reviewer. Huge alpha there. Shoulda done that after the first month of getting ghosted.
@Quinn You can, but usually this slows the process down, reviewers normally take ~months to get back to you, and the editor consistently pressured me not to, saying it might take me an additional year or force me to restart the editing process if I did.
Thanks for the crystal-clear hindsight, though.
Buy some more NO, folks.
@Lorxus Also, I didn't get rehired. Though at this point, given how badly teaching at [University] went, I'm not even entirely sure I'd have accepted.
@ian Yeah, I talked with Editor yesterday. They declined to join the market, citing ethical issues, but if you feel like taking my word for it, Editor told me that even if Reviewer does just rubber-stamp my paper, there'll be lead time before it sees publication.