Will Lorxus, the author of this market, remain above Platinum at the end of S2?
10
190Ṁ6785
resolved Jul 1
Resolved
YES

Currently in Diamond, having finished Rank 1 of my Plat division in S1. I think I'm a good predictor but then again I would think that.

Take note: the market resolves NO if I'm demoted to Plat at the end of S2, and YES if I'm somehow promoted to whatever's above Diamond.

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V. vulpes var. mathematica population forecasting
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predictedNO

I mean I think it's safe to say Lorxus has very little chance of being promoted, so this market should be trading similar to https://manifold.markets/Lorxus/will-lorxus-the-author-of-this-mark-da1747468414 but it is not.

Will Lorxus, the author of this market, remain in Diamond at the end of S2?
50% chance. Currently in Diamond, having finished Rank 1 of my Plat division in S1. I think I’m a good predictor but then again I would think that. Take note: the market resolves NO if I’m demoted to Plat at the end of S2, and NO if I’m somehow promoted to whatever’s above Diamond. It only resolves…

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