Lorxus is a SERI MATS Scholar for Summer 2024 and remains alive in Tontine. These two facts are likely unrelated.

https://tontine.cash/ is a MSCHF game. On 2021-12-27, 7141 players each paid $10 into a central pot and have been required to check in at least once a day by midnight EST/EDT or else be eliminated. The last remaining player will win the pot. As of 2024-6-7, 250 players remain. On that day: 2 deaths over the last 7 days; 12 deaths over the last 30 days; 62 deaths this year.

SERI MATS's Summer 2024 run will end on August 24th.

Lorxus will not throw away his life, in Tontine or otherwise, in order to force this market to resolve one way or another, nor will they seek to cause MATS to end early.

Which will happen first - the end of MATS, or the end of an era (of not having data about the progression of Tontine half-lives)? The market will resolve to "There are at most 223 surviving Tontine players." if on the day that SERI MATS ends - which is most likely August 24th - there are 223 or fewer living Tontine players, and to "SERI MATS 2024 ends." if on that day there are 224 or more living Tontine players. In the event that SERI MATS ends early, that day will be the day this market resolves.