How many deaths will there be in Tontine in 2024? (New Numeric Market Type!)
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แน120แน877resolved Jan 1
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https://tontine.cash/ is a MSCHF game. On 2021-12-27, 7141 players each paid $10 into a central pot and have been required to check in at least once a day by midnight EST/EDT or else be eliminated. The last remaining player will win the pot.
As of 2023-12-31, 312 players remained. As of 2024-1-30, 298 players remained. As of 2024-3-13, 280 players remain.
The market resolves to the number of deaths in the calendar year 2024 as calculated by 312 minus the living player count on 2025-1-1.
If the death count is larger than 192, it resolves to the 172-192 bucket.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oOhSmHcWT7DWHBbNKaHvplUcERxS5XBUwXUNJyfRdR8/edit#gid=0
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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