During which ~week will the Tontine surviving player count reach 350?

201

Ṁ6.1k

Ṁ590

resolved Oct 1

ALL

100%99.5%

October 1 2023 or later

0.0%

September 2 2023 or earlier

0.1%

September 3-9 2023

0.2%

September 10-16 2023

0.1%

September 17-23 2023

0.2%

September 24-30 2023

The market resolves to the choice whose date range includes the first day on which the living count is 350 or less, and resolves at 12:05 AM EST on that day or as soon as possible after that. It resolves to "October 1 2023 or later" on default market closure, which is October 1 2023 at 12:05 AM EST. It resolves to to N/A if the game is canceled for any reason.

Tontine

Tontine: everybody buys in, and the last person alive takes the pot. Log in every day to confirm you’re still alive.

Get Ṁ600 play money

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#	Name	Total profit
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4		Ṁ39
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17 Comments

8 Holders

89 Trades

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I really don't get this game. It's just a money-grabbing scheme by the creators. They know that people will create scripts to keep them alive, and they allow that. The idea is that because of that, they will pretty much never need to pay off the winner and they can just take people's money and do whatever they want with it..

@Shump https://manifold.markets/Lorxus/will-tontine-ever-pay-out care to put your marbles where your mouth is?

Will Tontine ever pay out?

88% chance. https://tontine.cash/ is a MSCHF game. On 2021-12-27, 7141 players each paid $10 into a central pot and have been required to check in at least once a day by midnight EST/EDT or else be eliminated. The last remaining player will win the pot. As of 2023-3-25, 493 players remain. The market resolves YES if/when the central pot is paid out. It resolves NO if/when the game is canceled for any reason, or if the central pot does not pay out by the end of 2099, which will stand in for "effectively never".

@Lorxus but that market just has the same problem. If the game never ends, the market never ends.

@Shump It is only $10 per player and if they get fun out of playing and chose to play, is that ok?

I guess for many players it will become a chore rather than fun but they can choose to stop playing, and if they made choice to put themselves in that position, then I am in largely in favour of free choice, but perhaps there are some limits to that eg pyramid schemes.

Do the creators have to keep the money and a recorded liability on their balance sheet in case the game does ever end? Does that mean they can't just spend the money as they like? They can invest the funds and keep the investment returns as their income. They will get quite a while to earn investment returns but it will only be a little each year for them. Probably take a while to cover all the game set up and running costs.

Do I see it as a con? No I think all was clear and in this case free choice should win out over nanny state protectionism.

What are you some pinko commie ... ? (I'm joking, certainly massively exaggerating in this paragraph.)

On manifest you gets loans so you can invest the funds elsewhere. On the other hand, I doubt the %chance on that markets will move far fast so I am also avoiding such markets.

During which ~week will the Tontine surviving player count reach 350? [New market type]

https://tontine.cash/ is a MSCHF game. On 2021-12-27, 7141 players each paid $10 into a central pot and have been required to check in at least once a day by midnight EST/EDT or else be eliminated. The last remaining player will win the pot. As of 2023-8-31, 378 players remain. The market resolves to the choice whose date range includes the first day on which the living count is 350 or less, and resolves at 12:05 AM EST on that day or as soon as possible after that. "Other" will be used to extend closing dates if the population is still above 350 at the default closing date, which is 2023-11-4. It resolves to to N/A if the game is canceled for any reason. [link preview]

https://manifold.markets/Lorxus/during-which-week-will-the-tontine-c0b25bd26ab3

Just did a wild projection that suggested 55 years to get down to 10 living players. I could easily increase this but my confidence in this is obviously very low. Still wonder how long a time projections with reasonably proven track record have to be to cause people to drop out or arrange a deal rather than deciding to keep up with trying.

@ChristopherRandles Yeah, I'd be careful trusting any prediction further than a few months to a year out. I'm pretty sure that at some point noise-effects, burnout, and hardware failure will dominate whatever death contribution a proportion-based analysis would predict.

Just redid the wild projection. This time 1.1948 * days survived / number players left = average time for that person. The 1.1948 is to fit recent data rather than the simple 1 used last time. Causes the outcome to change from 55 years to 126 years to get down to 10 players. Always was obvious this sort of projection was going to be highly sensitive to the initial rate. Good reason to call it a wild projection. Not exactly convincing is it. Still the 55 years was looking too short requiring an upward revision.

bought Ṁ25 of September 17-23 2023 NO

Population has been declining at a rate of about 5% a month. Using a naive calculation, that puts the date of reaching 350 users just barely after October 1st. However, that rate. of population decline has also been declining very slightly. If you anticipate the rate of players dropping out to slow down, even in the very slightest, you should bet heavily on post October 1st.

@jeremiahsamroo For some reason people tend to underestimate here.

bought Ṁ15 of September 10-16 2023 NO

@jeremiahsamroo crap, I think you're right. after doing a few updates to my private model, this looks really like to resolve to post-October 1.

The population count thread, for counting population. Please do not reply to this comment. Please do like it, so that it will show up at the top of Best.