Resolves YES if at any point before 2026 either:
1) At least one of current GiveWell's top charities turns out to be less than 30% as cost-effective as GiveWell currently claims (e.g. there is some significant fraud/mismanagement of funds at GiveWell itself or one of the top charities that makes the cost-effectiveness go to 0)
2) None of the current top charities (Malaria Consortium, Against Malaria Foundation, Helen Keller International's Vitamin A Supplementation Program, New Incentives) is still a top recommended charity by the most used cost-effectiveness charity evaluator for Global Health and Development (according to me) (edit: I meant "most used according to me", basically the most popular one in EA)
EDIT for 2): Resolves as YES only if it turned out they weren't the most cost-effective places to donate in 2022, not if e.g. all 4 problems are solved by 2026
Random example: Resolves YES if the EA Funds and the EA consensus manages Global Health interventions following the Happier Lives Institute recommendations