Which of these "random" bit strings are human generated?
25
15k
resolved Nov 25
Resolved
YES
19: 0101011100011100111100100 vs 1100101100011001111011101
Resolved
YES
22: 1110011001110001111111100 vs 1101111010001000110110111
Resolved
YES
31: 1100010100101010000010001 vs 1101000100001101101101111
Resolved
YES
23: 1111111001110101011101011 vs 0000110110010111000101011
Resolved
YES
40: 1111101100001000000100110 vs 0001011010110001001001101
Resolved
YES
18: 1100001010100110011010000 vs 0001100011000101110001001
Resolved
YES
13: 0011010111111100111010110 vs 0001101110000101101000110
Resolved
YES
11: 0000110111010100001101011 vs 0110001011011101110011110
Resolved
YES
30: 0011110011101010110011100 vs 0001101101110010011001100
Resolved
YES
9: 1101111001001001101110100 vs 0001000011001001011000100
Resolved
YES
5: 1000000000010110011100100 vs 1110010100001101010011110
Resolved
YES
36: 1001000110100111010010111 vs 0111010011010111011100000
Resolved
YES
32: 1101001000100101101000100 vs 0110101100011110110000001
Resolved
YES
27: 1011101010011010111110001 vs 1111100100101000110110000
Resolved
NO
29: 1010010111001000011010101 vs 0110011100011100011000100
Resolved
NO
2: 0011010000101100110001110 vs 0001101010001101011101001
Resolved
NO
35: 1100100011011000111101011 vs 0100110011101011001011010
Resolved
NO
39: 1010110111001010010110000 vs 1010100110000100001100001
Resolved
NO
14: 0111101000010100011011001 vs 1100001110110100110001011
Resolved
NO
3: 1110010110001101011000110 vs 0101000111001110100101001

Short description. You are presented with various bit strings, some generated by me (by hand) and some generated by a "true" source of randomness. Your task is to figure out which are which. In each pair exactly one of the strings has been generated by me. An answer resolves NO if the former string has been generated by me and YES if the latter one has been.

Long description.

I have generated 40 bit strings, each 25 bits long, by tapping the "0" and "1" keys on my keyboard. This took me 260 seconds.

I have also generated 40 bit strings with a short Python code using a "true" source of randomness.

The ith option contains the ith string I generated and the ith string from the randomness source in some order. Your task is to figure out which one is which.

The ordering of the human-generated bit strings have not been changed, i.e. the first option contains the first string I generated, the second one the second and so on.

I will be resolving the markets one by one starting from the first one. After each resolution there will be some time to re-evaluate one's probabilities for the remaining markets.

(A market will resolve NO if the former string has been generated by me and YES if the latter one has been. Memory trick: NO = 0 = 0th string is mine, YES = 1 = 1st string is mine, when indexing strings with 0-indexing.

Another memory trick: there is a colorful bar in each of the options. Try to push its endpoint to the left if you think the left-most string has been generated by me and to the right if the right-most string has been.

Understandably people find this confusing, be careful to make your bets in the correct direction! I also included an example pair, where the all-zeros string is meant to be the human-generated one and hence that market resolves YES.)

Scheduling.

I will be resolving the first market on October 28th or so. After that, I'll be resolving the markets one by one, probably at a pace of 1-2 per day. (I am open to requests to speed up or slow down.) So beware - this will be slow. Good reason to automate and write programs!

See also.

What events will happen on this market?

Data.

The correct row so far:

1000101110111000011101100110011100010001

All 40 pairs in a convenient copyable form.

1111010000100010000011100 1110110001011101010001000

0011010000101100110001110 0001101010001101011101001

1110010110001101011000110 0101000111001110100101001

1000101110100011000111010 0110011110111010010111000

1000000000010110011100100 1110010100001101010011110

1110100010000110101110111 1010100100001011010000010

1100110110000110110110100 0010111100101100101100000

0100010001000010011110101 1111001010011001111101010

1101111001001001101110100 0001000011001001011000100

1110100111010001110111101 0110100001101110100110001

0000110111010100001101011 0110001011011101110011110

0101100010010101101110110 1100011010100110100111100

0011010111111100111010110 0001101110000101101000110

0111101000010100011011001 1100001110110100110001011

1110010001101100000010110 0111110000101100000010011

1000101110000111011011011 1110000011110100100111011

1111001000111011000110110 1010101101101011001011000

1100001010100110011010000 0001100011000101110001001

0101011100011100111100100 1100101100011001111011101

0110010101111010000101010 0101111000101100101011111

0011011011110111000101000 0001111100000001010101101

1110011001110001111111100 1101111010001000110110111

1111111001110101011101011 0000110110010111000101011

0011101111010011001111000 1001010101010001001010100

1101111001001000110001101 0000110010000110011000011

0111010111010101001100111 1000100001100100000110110

1011101010011010111110001 1111100100101000110110000

0001011101100011101100111 1011000111011100000111100

1010010111001000011010101 0110011100011100011000100

0011110011101010110011100 0001101101110010011001100

1100010100101010000010001 1101000100001101101101111

1101001000100101101000100 0110101100011110110000001

1100111001011110111011000 0100111101000100000101010

0001101100011000100010011 0110011101000011100111111

1100100011011000111101011 0100110011101011001011010

1001000110100111010010111 0111010011010111011100000

0001101010001101110001101 0110101011100110001110110

1101010100110110001101010 1000111111000000011101111

1010110111001010010110000 1010100110000100001100001

1111101100001000000100110 0001011010110001001001101

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ1,818
2Ṁ1,376
3Ṁ302
4Ṁ37
5Ṁ23
Sort by:

The profit calculations are fixed!

I did some greedy search for a combination that had the most suspicious 4-tuple counts:

  • make 40 random choices and assume those ones are human made

  • count how often each possible 4-tuple appears in the possibly human made strings in total

  • calculate the entropy of this distribution

  • flip 1-10 of the random choices

  • check if the new assumption has a lower entropy

  • keep the changes if yes

  • continue search for 10000 steps

  • store final combination and repeat everything 1000 times with new initial guess

  • find 1000 more combinations each that locally minimize different entropies, like entropy of 3-tuple counts

  • average the x*1000 combinations to get a price for each pair

This performed okayish, had 24 of 40 correct. But on some of them it was pretty sure so it made 1400M profit from 3500M investment.

The strategy I used:

  • Measure how well combinations compress when all chunks put into one string

  • For each pair, check which string appears more often in combinations that compress best

  • Bet that that string is human generated

This worked very well at first, but then I took a couple of big loses, and overall didn't make much profit. Still not sure whether this strategy was any good to begin with.

Edit: Maybe I did make a lot of profit actually. Hard to tell due to bugs.

@roma "didn't make much profit" 😁

@nanob0nus I did't know 😅

I got really into this at the beginning, and then it just took too much of my time, so I checked out.

Retrospective on the market:

- Wow, this was heavy. My next markets will be substantially lighter than this and take a shorter time. I think even this market would have been better if it was a lot faster to maintain interest and excitement.

- I think the market was way underconfident towards the end. There was a comment that got 18 of the last 20 predictions right - I would have thought that after getting 9/10 correct of markets 21-30, traders would have caught on and said "hey, those predictions are actually quite good, let's use them", but this didn't really happen.

- If I think about the success of predictors based on that comment, I think they performed quite well actually. Like, getting 18/20 right towards the end is not bad!

- Interestingly, the predictions Just Before Resolving Anything were (very slightly) worse than trivial! Could it be that the predictors fell prey to the same biases that I did? (My memory from looking at the comments at the time suggested this, but haven't thought about this much)

- Not sure if the missing trader bonuses affected anything.

---

I have the data of predictions Just Before Resolving The Nth Market for each N (except for N = 2, for which I forgot to do this). Raw data here. Note: I copied them manually, so there might be typos. You should be suspicious if the prediction of a given market changes a lot (>10%) after a single resolution.

I haven't done really any data analysis on them yet. If you have ideas, implement them or send them my way!

See the below comment for the data

47 51 48 43 56 50 43 48 62 54 50 49 60 53 44 43 53 50 57 46 51 55 55 61 61 56 40 42 45 55 46 41 54 43 56 49 49 55 58 58

?

51 46 54 51 41 48 60 55 49 49 60 53 44 49 55 50 57 46 50 55 56 62 61 56 40 42 45 55 50 43 51 43 55 49 49 47 52 55

38 61 45 40 47 61 55 44 46 60 55 44 50 57 50 55 46 48 55 56 68 63 56 43 42 45 55 46 43 54 42 55 49 49 47 52 58

59 44 38 47 66 56 43 46 64 55 44 39 58 50 58 46 46 55 59 68 63 58 39 39 48 55 55 46 49 36 52 49 46 42 52 59

35 38 47 68 52 54 46 64 55 44 39 58 50 58 46 46 55 59 68 63 58 39 39 48 55 55 46 49 36 52 49 46 42 52 59

27 49 69 60 59 46 64 55 44 39 60 50 58 46 46 62 59 68 63 58 39 39 48 62 55 46 49 36 52 49 46 42 52 59

51 65 60 59 46 64 55 44 39 60 50 58 46 46 62 59 68 63 58 39 39 48 62 55 46 49 38 47 49 46 42 52 59

60 60 59 46 64 55 44 36 60 50 58 46 41 62 59 68 63 58 39 39 48 62 55 46 49 38 47 49 46 42 52 59

51 60 46 64 55 44 36 60 50 58 46 41 62 59 68 63 58 39 39 48 62 57 48 47 36 47 47 46 41 52 61

63 46 57 55 44 36 60 50 58 46 41 62 59 68 63 58 39 39 48 62 57 48 47 36 47 47 46 41 52 61

45 55 55 44 36 60 50 58 46 41 62 59 50 63 58 40 39 48 62 57 48 47 38 47 47 48 43 52 61

64 57 44 36 52 50 58 46 41 62 59 50 63 58 40 39 48 62 57 48 47 38 47 47 48 43 52 61

57 43 36 47 57 60 46 41 65 59 59 62 58 40 39 48 64 57 48 47 38 47 47 45 43 65 57

45 35 47 60 60 46 40 65 59 59 62 58 40 37 48 64 57 48 47 38 47 47 45 43 65 57

31 47 64 63 46 40 65 59 52 57 56 39 37 48 57 60 58 47 36 48 51 45 43 49 59

44 64 63 49 40 65 59 48 57 52 39 37 49 57 60 48 47 36 48 51 45 43 49 59

64 68 50 36 65 59 48 52 49 39 37 49 57 60 48 47 36 48 51 45 43 49 59

70 47 36 65 59 48 49 49 39 37 49 57 60 48 47 36 48 51 45 37 49 59

47 36 65 59 48 49 49 39 37 49 57 60 48 47 36 48 51 45 37 49 59

36 68 61 46 47 47 42 35 49 69 60 48 43 36 45 55 45 37 58 59

68 61 46 47 47 42 35 49 69 64 48 43 36 45 58 41 37 58 59

64 48 47 47 42 35 49 69 64 48 43 36 45 63 41 37 58 59

40 47 47 42 35 49 69 64 48 43 36 45 63 41 37 63 60

45 45 42 36 49 69 67 48 43 36 45 66 37 37 63 60

49 41 35 56 69 67 51 38 35 40 66 37 37 63 63

52 35 56 69 67 51 47 35 40 66 37 37 63 63

35 62 69 67 51 47 35 40 66 37 37 63 63

62 69 67 51 47 35 40 66 37 37 63 63

60 70 51 47 32 40 66 37 37 57 63

68 57 49 34 41 59 38 38 57 61

57 49 34 41 59 38 38 57 61

44 34 41 61 38 36 57 63

34 41 61 38 36 63 63

60 59 38 36 62 63

59 42 40 72 63

42 44 72 63

43 69 63

60 63

64

@Loppukilpailija Thanks a lot for the market!

The amount of data here was a bit overwhelming and that made the market less catchy. For example I realized quite late that @GGtr s guess is so good, since I had to check that manually after each new outcome. Also manifolds overview features on these mass markets are still not ideal, e.g. the total profit count is total bs.

The daily resolutions stopped me from getting overconfident, since we all experienced some blowbacks. @capybara on the very first one, me on 7,10,11,17 and @roma on 33.

@nanob0nus

e.g. the total profit count is total bs.

I'm actually not sure how much I've made or lost 😅

Feels like I've made 500-1000.

Manifold shows just below the answers: "You made Ṁ155 in profit!".

Manifold doesn't show me in "Top traders" although other numbers there are way below 155.

"Top traders" definitely wrong. The 155 number might be right, but I'm not sure.

@roma

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1173315755517939862/1178401097887527032

someone somewhere maybe is aware of this and hopefully tries to fix this soon. Or it is just fixed for new markets and this one stays defect

@nanob0nus The total profit calculation seems to assume that all the markets are still at the final market price before resolution. And the profit leaderboard just takes this wrong value from the last resolved market.

@nanob0nus Crazy how broken it is! Hope they'll fix old markets too

Final update and concluding thoughts tomorrow!

(Market was closed for a moment, sorry about that. Added a few days more - this will end during this week anyways.)

My previous prediction set 01100110111100010011 did fairly well (got 9/10 right so far), let's stick to it and predict 1100010011 for the last 10. Too bad there are some uncertain ones there.

@GGtr so close

39 is the first wrong one

10 markets left! The derivative market has something about whether the market is right about the rest of the pairs and whether someone correctly guesses the rest of the pairs. I'll leave you a day to make predictions.

Let's have a day-long break now that we are half-way through. Next update tomorrow.

My predictiones for the second half: 01100110111100010011 (not all of them very confident)

This is based on:

At this point we can see that OP is trying too hard to switch exactly half the time: all the artificial strings switch between 11 and 13 times, which is far too neat - random ones switch between 9 and 17 times. So betting on the string that switches closer to 12 times works pretty well.

We can see that chunks of 4 are distributed unevenly: there's too few 1111 and 0000 and too many 0110. Can assign scores based on that.

@GGtr This was a great prediction, congratulations! (Strange that the market didn't reflect the quality of this one.)

@Loppukilpailija My guesses after 18 reveals:

1000101110111000011000101000001000010011
1000101110111000011000101000011000010011
1000101110111000011001000000000000010011
1000101110111000011001000000001000010001
1000101110111000011001000000001000010011
1000101110111000011001000000001010001011
1000101110111000011001000000001010010001
1000101110111000011001000000001010010011
1000101110111000011001000000001110010001
1000101110111000011001000000011010010011
1000101110111000011001000000011010010111
1000101110111000011001000000111010010011
1000101110111000011001000010111010010001
1000101110111000011001000010111010010010
1000101110111000011001001000001000010010
1000101110111000011001001000001000010011
1000101110111000011001001000001100010001
1000101110111000011001001000001100010011
1000101110111000011001001011111000010010
1000101110111000011001010000111010000011
1000101110111000011001010010111010000001
1000101110111000011001011010111010000010
1000101110111000011001011010111010000011
1000101110111000011001011010111010001010
1000101110111000011001100000001000010001
1000101110111000011001100000001000010011
1000101110111000011001100000001010010011
1000101110111000011001100000001111110001
1000101110111000011001100000011010010011
1000101110111000011001100010011010010001
1000101110111000011001100010011010010011
1000101110111000011001101000001000010011
1000101110111000011001111010111010000001
1000101110111000011001111010111010000010
1000101110111000011011010000011110110011
1000101110111000011101001010101000010010
1000101110111000011101100000001010010011
1000101110111000011101100000001110010001
1000101110111000011101100000011010010011
1000101110111000011101100010011010010001
1000101110111000011101101000001000010011

Tried to use AI for text completions and based on how many tokens were predicted I'd determine which is which. I didn't have much luck, mainly because it never actually responded with the right format. I tried most of the OpenAI models.

Good god I'm losing so much money

Would be interesting to calculate log score of the final predictions.

@Irigi I will do that - in fact, there's a market about whether the final predictions are better than trivial on the derivative market: https://manifold.markets/Loppukilpailija/what-will-happen-on-a-market-on-dis

EDIT: I'm also interested in seeing how the quality of predictions for [markets that have not been resolved yet] moves over time. I haven't yet done any plots or anything, but I have taken screenshots of the market probabilities each time I resolve one.