Short description. You are presented with various bit strings, some generated by me (by hand) and some generated by a "true" source of randomness. Your task is to figure out which are which. In each pair exactly one of the strings has been generated by me. An answer resolves NO if the former string has been generated by me and YES if the latter one has been.
Long description.
I have generated 40 bit strings, each 25 bits long, by tapping the "0" and "1" keys on my keyboard. This took me 260 seconds.
I have also generated 40 bit strings with a short Python code using a "true" source of randomness.
The ith option contains the ith string I generated and the ith string from the randomness source in some order. Your task is to figure out which one is which.
The ordering of the human-generated bit strings have not been changed, i.e. the first option contains the first string I generated, the second one the second and so on.
I will be resolving the markets one by one starting from the first one. After each resolution there will be some time to re-evaluate one's probabilities for the remaining markets.
(A market will resolve NO if the former string has been generated by me and YES if the latter one has been. Memory trick: NO = 0 = 0th string is mine, YES = 1 = 1st string is mine, when indexing strings with 0-indexing.
Another memory trick: there is a colorful bar in each of the options. Try to push its endpoint to the left if you think the left-most string has been generated by me and to the right if the right-most string has been.
Understandably people find this confusing, be careful to make your bets in the correct direction! I also included an example pair, where the all-zeros string is meant to be the human-generated one and hence that market resolves YES.)
Scheduling.
I will be resolving the first market on October 28th or so. After that, I'll be resolving the markets one by one, probably at a pace of 1-2 per day. (I am open to requests to speed up or slow down.) So beware - this will be slow. Good reason to automate and write programs!
See also.
What events will happen on this market?
Data.
The correct row so far:
1000101110111000011101100110011100010001
All 40 pairs in a convenient copyable form.
1111010000100010000011100 1110110001011101010001000
0011010000101100110001110 0001101010001101011101001
1110010110001101011000110 0101000111001110100101001
1000101110100011000111010 0110011110111010010111000
1000000000010110011100100 1110010100001101010011110
1110100010000110101110111 1010100100001011010000010
1100110110000110110110100 0010111100101100101100000
0100010001000010011110101 1111001010011001111101010
1101111001001001101110100 0001000011001001011000100
1110100111010001110111101 0110100001101110100110001
0000110111010100001101011 0110001011011101110011110
0101100010010101101110110 1100011010100110100111100
0011010111111100111010110 0001101110000101101000110
0111101000010100011011001 1100001110110100110001011
1110010001101100000010110 0111110000101100000010011
1000101110000111011011011 1110000011110100100111011
1111001000111011000110110 1010101101101011001011000
1100001010100110011010000 0001100011000101110001001
0101011100011100111100100 1100101100011001111011101
0110010101111010000101010 0101111000101100101011111
0011011011110111000101000 0001111100000001010101101
1110011001110001111111100 1101111010001000110110111
1111111001110101011101011 0000110110010111000101011
0011101111010011001111000 1001010101010001001010100
1101111001001000110001101 0000110010000110011000011
0111010111010101001100111 1000100001100100000110110
1011101010011010111110001 1111100100101000110110000
0001011101100011101100111 1011000111011100000111100
1010010111001000011010101 0110011100011100011000100
0011110011101010110011100 0001101101110010011001100
1100010100101010000010001 1101000100001101101101111
1101001000100101101000100 0110101100011110110000001
1100111001011110111011000 0100111101000100000101010
0001101100011000100010011 0110011101000011100111111
1100100011011000111101011 0100110011101011001011010
1001000110100111010010111 0111010011010111011100000
0001101010001101110001101 0110101011100110001110110
1101010100110110001101010 1000111111000000011101111
1010110111001010010110000 1010100110000100001100001
1111101100001000000100110 0001011010110001001001101
I did some greedy search for a combination that had the most suspicious 4-tuple counts:
make 40 random choices and assume those ones are human made
count how often each possible 4-tuple appears in the possibly human made strings in total
calculate the entropy of this distribution
flip 1-10 of the random choices
check if the new assumption has a lower entropy
keep the changes if yes
continue search for 10000 steps
store final combination and repeat everything 1000 times with new initial guess
find 1000 more combinations each that locally minimize different entropies, like entropy of 3-tuple counts
average the x*1000 combinations to get a price for each pair
This performed okayish, had 24 of 40 correct. But on some of them it was pretty sure so it made 1400M profit from 3500M investment.
The strategy I used:
Measure how well combinations compress when all chunks put into one string
For each pair, check which string appears more often in combinations that compress best
Bet that that string is human generated
This worked very well at first, but then I took a couple of big loses, and overall didn't make much profit. Still not sure whether this strategy was any good to begin with.
Edit: Maybe I did make a lot of profit actually. Hard to tell due to bugs.
Retrospective on the market:
- Wow, this was heavy. My next markets will be substantially lighter than this and take a shorter time. I think even this market would have been better if it was a lot faster to maintain interest and excitement.
- I think the market was way underconfident towards the end. There was a comment that got 18 of the last 20 predictions right - I would have thought that after getting 9/10 correct of markets 21-30, traders would have caught on and said "hey, those predictions are actually quite good, let's use them", but this didn't really happen.
- If I think about the success of predictors based on that comment, I think they performed quite well actually. Like, getting 18/20 right towards the end is not bad!
- Interestingly, the predictions Just Before Resolving Anything were (very slightly) worse than trivial! Could it be that the predictors fell prey to the same biases that I did? (My memory from looking at the comments at the time suggested this, but haven't thought about this much)
- Not sure if the missing trader bonuses affected anything.
---
I have the data of predictions Just Before Resolving The Nth Market for each N (except for N = 2, for which I forgot to do this). Raw data here. Note: I copied them manually, so there might be typos. You should be suspicious if the prediction of a given market changes a lot (>10%) after a single resolution.
I haven't done really any data analysis on them yet. If you have ideas, implement them or send them my way!
See the below comment for the data
47 51 48 43 56 50 43 48 62 54 50 49 60 53 44 43 53 50 57 46 51 55 55 61 61 56 40 42 45 55 46 41 54 43 56 49 49 55 58 58
?
51 46 54 51 41 48 60 55 49 49 60 53 44 49 55 50 57 46 50 55 56 62 61 56 40 42 45 55 50 43 51 43 55 49 49 47 52 55
38 61 45 40 47 61 55 44 46 60 55 44 50 57 50 55 46 48 55 56 68 63 56 43 42 45 55 46 43 54 42 55 49 49 47 52 58
59 44 38 47 66 56 43 46 64 55 44 39 58 50 58 46 46 55 59 68 63 58 39 39 48 55 55 46 49 36 52 49 46 42 52 59
35 38 47 68 52 54 46 64 55 44 39 58 50 58 46 46 55 59 68 63 58 39 39 48 55 55 46 49 36 52 49 46 42 52 59
27 49 69 60 59 46 64 55 44 39 60 50 58 46 46 62 59 68 63 58 39 39 48 62 55 46 49 36 52 49 46 42 52 59
51 65 60 59 46 64 55 44 39 60 50 58 46 46 62 59 68 63 58 39 39 48 62 55 46 49 38 47 49 46 42 52 59
60 60 59 46 64 55 44 36 60 50 58 46 41 62 59 68 63 58 39 39 48 62 55 46 49 38 47 49 46 42 52 59
51 60 46 64 55 44 36 60 50 58 46 41 62 59 68 63 58 39 39 48 62 57 48 47 36 47 47 46 41 52 61
63 46 57 55 44 36 60 50 58 46 41 62 59 68 63 58 39 39 48 62 57 48 47 36 47 47 46 41 52 61
45 55 55 44 36 60 50 58 46 41 62 59 50 63 58 40 39 48 62 57 48 47 38 47 47 48 43 52 61
64 57 44 36 52 50 58 46 41 62 59 50 63 58 40 39 48 62 57 48 47 38 47 47 48 43 52 61
57 43 36 47 57 60 46 41 65 59 59 62 58 40 39 48 64 57 48 47 38 47 47 45 43 65 57
45 35 47 60 60 46 40 65 59 59 62 58 40 37 48 64 57 48 47 38 47 47 45 43 65 57
31 47 64 63 46 40 65 59 52 57 56 39 37 48 57 60 58 47 36 48 51 45 43 49 59
44 64 63 49 40 65 59 48 57 52 39 37 49 57 60 48 47 36 48 51 45 43 49 59
64 68 50 36 65 59 48 52 49 39 37 49 57 60 48 47 36 48 51 45 43 49 59
70 47 36 65 59 48 49 49 39 37 49 57 60 48 47 36 48 51 45 37 49 59
47 36 65 59 48 49 49 39 37 49 57 60 48 47 36 48 51 45 37 49 59
36 68 61 46 47 47 42 35 49 69 60 48 43 36 45 55 45 37 58 59
68 61 46 47 47 42 35 49 69 64 48 43 36 45 58 41 37 58 59
64 48 47 47 42 35 49 69 64 48 43 36 45 63 41 37 58 59
40 47 47 42 35 49 69 64 48 43 36 45 63 41 37 63 60
45 45 42 36 49 69 67 48 43 36 45 66 37 37 63 60
49 41 35 56 69 67 51 38 35 40 66 37 37 63 63
52 35 56 69 67 51 47 35 40 66 37 37 63 63
35 62 69 67 51 47 35 40 66 37 37 63 63
62 69 67 51 47 35 40 66 37 37 63 63
60 70 51 47 32 40 66 37 37 57 63
68 57 49 34 41 59 38 38 57 61
57 49 34 41 59 38 38 57 61
44 34 41 61 38 36 57 63
34 41 61 38 36 63 63
60 59 38 36 62 63
59 42 40 72 63
42 44 72 63
43 69 63
60 63
64
@Loppukilpailija Thanks a lot for the market!
The amount of data here was a bit overwhelming and that made the market less catchy. For example I realized quite late that @GGtr s guess is so good, since I had to check that manually after each new outcome. Also manifolds overview features on these mass markets are still not ideal, e.g. the total profit count is total bs.
The daily resolutions stopped me from getting overconfident, since we all experienced some blowbacks. @capybara on the very first one, me on 7,10,11,17 and @roma on 33.
e.g. the total profit count is total bs.
I'm actually not sure how much I've made or lost ๐
Feels like I've made 500-1000.
Manifold shows just below the answers: "You made แน155 in profit!".
Manifold doesn't show me in "Top traders" although other numbers there are way below 155.
"Top traders" definitely wrong. The 155 number might be right, but I'm not sure.
https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1173315755517939862/1178401097887527032
someone somewhere maybe is aware of this and hopefully tries to fix this soon. Or it is just fixed for new markets and this one stays defect
@nanob0nus The total profit calculation seems to assume that all the markets are still at the final market price before resolution. And the profit leaderboard just takes this wrong value from the last resolved market.
My predictiones for the second half: 01100110111100010011 (not all of them very confident)
This is based on:
At this point we can see that OP is trying too hard to switch exactly half the time: all the artificial strings switch between 11 and 13 times, which is far too neat - random ones switch between 9 and 17 times. So betting on the string that switches closer to 12 times works pretty well.
We can see that chunks of 4 are distributed unevenly: there's too few 1111 and 0000 and too many 0110. Can assign scores based on that.
@GGtr This was a great prediction, congratulations! (Strange that the market didn't reflect the quality of this one.)
@Loppukilpailija My guesses after 18 reveals:
1000101110111000011000101000001000010011
1000101110111000011000101000011000010011
1000101110111000011001000000000000010011
1000101110111000011001000000001000010001
1000101110111000011001000000001000010011
1000101110111000011001000000001010001011
1000101110111000011001000000001010010001
1000101110111000011001000000001010010011
1000101110111000011001000000001110010001
1000101110111000011001000000011010010011
1000101110111000011001000000011010010111
1000101110111000011001000000111010010011
1000101110111000011001000010111010010001
1000101110111000011001000010111010010010
1000101110111000011001001000001000010010
1000101110111000011001001000001000010011
1000101110111000011001001000001100010001
1000101110111000011001001000001100010011
1000101110111000011001001011111000010010
1000101110111000011001010000111010000011
1000101110111000011001010010111010000001
1000101110111000011001011010111010000010
1000101110111000011001011010111010000011
1000101110111000011001011010111010001010
1000101110111000011001100000001000010001
1000101110111000011001100000001000010011
1000101110111000011001100000001010010011
1000101110111000011001100000001111110001
1000101110111000011001100000011010010011
1000101110111000011001100010011010010001
1000101110111000011001100010011010010011
1000101110111000011001101000001000010011
1000101110111000011001111010111010000001
1000101110111000011001111010111010000010
1000101110111000011011010000011110110011
1000101110111000011101001010101000010010
1000101110111000011101100000001010010011
1000101110111000011101100000001110010001
1000101110111000011101100000011010010011
1000101110111000011101100010011010010001
1000101110111000011101101000001000010011