What will happen on a market on distinguishing random bit strings from human-generated ones?
11
1.4kṀ7070
resolved Dec 3
Resolved
YES
The sequence 1000101101011001000101100010001101010001 where 1 stands for YES and 0 stands for NO for each of the 40 markets will have an accuracy rate of at least 75%.
Resolved
YES
The average of [logarithmic score of a market Just Before It's Resolved] over all 40 markets is better than trivial (i.e. all predictions 50%)
Resolved
YES
Just Before Resolving The 40th Market, the 40th market is directionally correct
Resolved
NO
Someone will lose more than 1000 mana on the main market
Resolved
NO
Just Before Resolving Anything, the (average) logarithmic score of the Main Market is better than trivial (all predictions 50%)
Resolved
NO
Just Before Resolving The 21st Market, someone has correctly guessed the correct answers for the remaining 20 unresolved markets (max 100 predictions per person)
Resolved
NO
Just Before Resolving Anything, at least 25 of the 40 markets are directionally correct (have >= 51% for the correct option)
Resolved
NO
Just Before Resolving Anything, someone has given their guess of the correct row, with at least 36 out of the 40 predictions being correct (max 100 predictions per person)
Resolved
NO
At least 30 markets are directionally correct at the time they are resolved
Resolved
NO
At least one of the markets is at least 90% confident in a wrong answer at the time it is resolved
Resolved
NO
At least one of the markets is at least 80% confident in a wrong answer at the time it is resolved
Resolved
NO
Just Before Resolving Anything, there is at least one market whose probability is at most 10% or at least 90%
Resolved
NO
Just Before Resolving The 31st Market, all of the remaining 10 unresolved markets are directionally correct
Resolved
NO
Just Before Resolving the 31st Market, someone has correctly guessed the correct answers for the remaining 10 unresolved markets (max 1 prediction per person)
Resolved
NO
At least one of the markets is at least 95% confident in its answer at the time it is resolved.

This market concerns the events of the following market, henceforth called the Main Market: https://manifold.markets/Loppukilpailija/which-of-these-random-bit-strings-a

Anyone can add more options. I will only count them if their truth values are easily checked (or someone else does this for me), they are clearly stated, unambiguous et cetera and otherwise I will resolve them N/A.

In case the resolution of a market here would leak information about the Main Market, I will wait on the resolution (meaning: at latest until everything on the Main Market has resolved).

Note that you may add questions about the state of the Main Market at specific points in time. A particularly interesting time (I think) is the part where I'm just about to resolve the first market on the Main Market, but haven't yet done that. Let me refer to this time by "Just Before Resolving Anything". In general, let me call Just Before Resolving The Nth Market the time just before I have resolved the Nth market on the Main Market.

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