https://www.axios.com/2024/08/25/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-attack

"There are decades when nothing happens, and weeks when nothing happens."

The market seems to be reassured today (shekel up, TLV stock market up)

No guys, seriously, nothing ever happens.

This definition is confusing because if Israeli forces enter Lebanon it would be primarily be to stop Lebanese bombing of Israel, not to take control of Lebanon. I assume that would still settle as yes though

This would be very dumb

Nothing ever happens ---> It's happening

What on earth happened? Why in the hell is this at 78% that is insanely high. I am out the loop. As far as I can tell we just have the ongoing border conflict of firing missiles at each other, but a full scale invasion? What?

if you think the probability is much lower it's quite lucrative for you to buy it down, then

Border conflic that forced civilians to desert towns. Israeli side proclaimed an ultimatum that Hz must leave to the north as prescribed in a previous Lebanon war resolution.

Many countries issued evacuation orders for their citizens.

The clusterfuck intensifies...

How large is “large numbers”?

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1796274001410711647

Also heard from some friends that the idf began preparing staging grounds on the border with Lebanon

Hearing from some friends that israel began preparing staging grounds for entry into lebanon

Israel should end those terrorist rats

This seems like a NO (<15% chance) but without more clarity on the resolution criteria it's difficult to make a bet.

If an Israeli task force of, say, 20 people, crosses over into Lebanon, does a mission, then goes back to Israel after, say, a month -- is that an invasion? What about 200 people over 3 months? What if it's 10 tanks? Does duration need to be indeterminate to count as invasion?

@pietrokc sorry for the lack of description and I will explain.

I will use the Cambridge dictionary definition of invasion to determine the outcome and i will update the description: "the act of entering a place by force, often in large numbers." and "an occasion when an army or country uses force to enter and take control of another country" ~https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/invasion
So if the Israeli military enters Lebanon in big numbers in an aim of invasion/take control of parts/the entirety of Lebanon it will be resolved to yes. Like Russia is invading parts of Ukraine but for Lebanon.
This will be the new description. Thanks again for asking.

@pietrokc and about the duration i think it would be immediate effect. Troops on the ground actively trying to get parts of Lebanon with the goal of taking control of that region just like the Cambridge dictionary

I can imagine isolated teams crossing the border on foot — is that an invasion? Or airplanes or drones or rockets—

@SusanneinFrance imagine ukrain but in lebanon

@LolPopb5f2 Ok, troops and vehicles on the ground

Invasion = troops cross border?

@B1e0e just like Russia invaded Ukraine it is the act of attacking another nation so yes

what do you all think?