Will the Israel invade Lebanon by the end of 2024?
1.1k
2025
33%
chance

I will use the Cambridge dictionary definition of invasion to determine the outcome and i will update the description: "the act of entering a place by force, often in large numbers." and "an occasion when an army or country uses force to enter and take control of another country" ~https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/invasion
So if the Israeli military enters Lebanon in big numbers in an aim of invasion/take control of parts/the entirety of Lebanon it will be resolved to yes. Like Russia is invading parts of Ukraine but for Lebanon.

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Israel should end those terrorist rats

This seems like a NO (<15% chance) but without more clarity on the resolution criteria it's difficult to make a bet.

If an Israeli task force of, say, 20 people, crosses over into Lebanon, does a mission, then goes back to Israel after, say, a month -- is that an invasion? What about 200 people over 3 months? What if it's 10 tanks? Does duration need to be indeterminate to count as invasion?

predicts NO

@pietrokc sorry for the lack of description and I will explain.

I will use the Cambridge dictionary definition of invasion to determine the outcome and i will update the description: "the act of entering a place by force, often in large numbers." and "an occasion when an army or country uses force to enter and take control of another country" ~https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/invasion
So if the Israeli military enters Lebanon in big numbers in an aim of invasion/take control of parts/the entirety of Lebanon it will be resolved to yes. Like Russia is invading parts of Ukraine but for Lebanon.
This will be the new description. Thanks again for asking.

bought Ṁ20 of YES

@pietrokc and about the duration i think it would be immediate effect. Troops on the ground actively trying to get parts of Lebanon with the goal of taking control of that region just like the Cambridge dictionary

predicts NO

I can imagine isolated teams crossing the border on foot — is that an invasion? Or airplanes or drones or rockets—

predicts NO

@SusanneinFrance imagine ukrain but in lebanon

predicts NO

@LolPopb5f2 Ok, troops and vehicles on the ground

Invasion = troops cross border?

predicts NO

@B1e0e just like Russia invaded Ukraine it is the act of attacking another nation so yes

predicts NO

what do you all think?

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