The Chatbot Arena Leaderboard (https://chat.lmsys.org/?arena) lists GPT-4 in the number 1 spot with an ELO of 1225.

In the number 2 spot is Claude with an ELO 1195

Will any chatbot replace GPT-4 in the number one spot before July 1, 2024?

Fine print:

If https://chat.lmsys.org/?arena ceases to function, the question may resolve on the basis of a similar site that gives ELOs for chatbots based off of real human blind side-by-side judgements.

--update--

Important update: there are now multiple "GPT-4" models on the leaderboard. In order for this question to resolve positive, the top-scoring model must have a different name (e.g. Claude) or number (e.g. 4.5). Significantly, GPT-4-turbo scoring higher than GPT-4-1106-preview will not cause this question to resolve positive.