20
323
330
resolved Nov 21
Resolved
N/A

Resolves Yes, if I become a fellow in 2024 or 2025 (the years in which I am still eligible). I only got to stage 2 and used almost no calculus in the application, seeing it more like a creative essay writing exercise, which seems to have been a mistake. I am doing Coursera courses on game theory and linear algebra + reading a lot of LessWrong posts.

I was a February 2023 Non-trivial fellow (https://www.non-trivial.org/),

which seems to be somehow connected to Atlas (and has a similar application), albeit with a slightly different focus and online (+most likely much less selective).

I will vote no as an insurance (+ because that's what I predict), but I won't buy more No in case of not getting accepted nor will I buy Yes in the case of getting accepted.

If I don't apply, this will resolve N/A. The same holds for the possibility of Atlas disbanding and not running in 2024, which seems to be strongly overblown by the predictors, though they may know something I don't (if so, I would greatly appreciate any info, as to why Atlas should disband and not run in 2024).

I won't get offended by large No bets, nor will I appreciate "motivational" Yes bets, hopefully, this market will serve its (predicting) purpose as well as it can.

Get Ṁ600 play money
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predicted NO

Well, I won't. Time to find another life goal.

predicted NO

The bots believe in me 💪

bought Ṁ80 of NO

This got automatically tagged by Manifold with the category #Proofniks, such an honour.