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Where was the poll?

Yes, they would feel pain (in the sense of pain signals), no this would not be a moral concern (pain in itself is not a moral concern).

Betting yes because of the type of person that likely follows you.

@MicahAuerbach Ok, interesting.. I don't think that the type of person who follows me is significantly more likely to believe that pain alone is a moral concern (mainly because many are from an old market about getting followers) than an average Manifold user, though an average Manifold user probably is more inclined to be utilitarian/suffering focused in their ethical framework than an average person.

@MicahAuerbach I'm curious though, why do you think that pain in itself is not a moral concern? it's true that the two aren't equal, I just (wrongly) assumed the reader to see them the same (pain causes suffering, beings capable of suffering are moral patients, thus of moral concern)

@Logaems I think a convincing explanation of my position would need to be longer than anything I'm willing to write, but briefly, there are two separate reasons. 1) Pain and suffering are not the same thing. There are many instances of pain that do not lead to suffering. 2) Not all moral systems consider all sufferers to be moral patients.

There might also be relevant things to say about different kinds of suffering.

According to Manifold, earthworms are more likely to have subjective experience than human babies.

@IsaacKing The definition seem different though

@Logaems sentient/conscious

@Logaems Surely pain is a type of subjective experience?

@IsaacKing Your market only resolves once neuroscience has been figured out tho :(

Research seems to indicate YES.

@evergreenemily Thanks! I made this market completely uninformed about the evidence, but I won't de-list it, as there still is the subjective criterium of "moral concern"

Feel free to persuade other bettors with arguments for your position