Will I guess which cards are foil/non-foil in my Magic 30th Anniversary Countdown Secret Lair box with a >70% accuracy?
7
84
150
resolved Dec 19
Resolved
YES

The Magic 30th Anniversary Countdown Secret Lair comes with 30 cards, each of which have a 70% chance of being non-foil and 30% chance of being foil. Each card is wrapped individually in its own booster-like packaging.

I could guess non-foil for each card and get about 70% right, but that would be boring. As classic MTG foils go, foil cards are curled slightly. By examining the pack (sight, feel, slight bending), I will attempt to guess whether or not the pack has a foil or non-foil, then record whether or not the card was foil.

This resolves to YES if I correctly guess the foil/non-foil treatment of at least 20 of the 28 packs I haven't opened already. I plan on opening about one card a day until Christmas. (It is an advent calendar, after all.)

Close date updated to 2023-01-15 11:59 pm

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predicted YES

Bloodbraid Elf (17/30) - Guess - non-foil; Actual - non-foil. CORRECT

predicted YES

Heritage Druid (16/30) - Guess - foil; Actual - non-foil. INCORRECT

Ponder (15/30) was skipped as mentioned in a previous comment.

predicted YES

Bogardan Hellkite (14/30) - Guess - non-foil; Actual - non-foil. CORRECT

bought Ṁ35 of YES

Guesses recorded below:

predicted YES

@Loche Shivan Dragon (1/30): Guess - non-foil; Actual - non-foil. CORRECT

predicted YES

@Loche Mishra's Factory (2/30): Guess - non-foil; Actual - non-foil. CORRECT

predicted YES

@Loche Necropotence (3/30): Guess -non-foil; Actual - non-foil. CORRECT

predicted YES

@Loche Lim-Dul's Vault (4/30) - Guess - foil; Actual - foil. CORRECT

predicted YES

@Loche The 2 packs not counted towards the 30 are Ponder (15/30) and Deathrite Shaman (20/30). They were both foil, but I did not make a guess towards either of these prior to opening them.

predicted YES

@Loche Tradewind Rider (5/30) - Guess - foil; Actual - foil. CORRECT

predicted YES

@Loche Smokestack (6/30) - Guess - non-foil; Actual - non-foil. CORRECT

predicted YES

@Loche Squee, Goblin Nabob (7/30) - Guess - foil; Actual - foil. CORRECT

predicted YES

@Loche Lin Sivvi, Defiant Hero (8/30) - Guess - non-foil; Actual - non-foil. CORRECT

predicted YES

@Loche Genesis (9/30) - Guess - non-foil; Actual - non-foil. CORRECT

predicted YES

@Loche Correction: Genesis is (10/30). Actual (9/30) is Wild Mongrel, which was: Guess - non-foil; Actual - non-foil. CORRECT

predicted YES

@Loche Chrome Mox (11/30) - Guess - foil; Actual - foil. CORRECT

predicted YES

@Loche Glimpse of Nature (12/30) - Guess - foil; Actual - foil. CORRECT

predicted YES

@Loche Lightning Helix (13/30) - Guess - non-foil; Actual - non-foil. CORRECT

predicted YES

@Loche Sun Titan (18/30) - Guess - foil; Actual - foil. CORRECT

Guesses 14-17 were in their own comments. Whoops.

predicted YES

@Loche Birthing Pod (19/30) - Guess - non-foil; Actual - non-foil. CORRECT

predicted YES

@Loche Elspeth, Sun's Champion (20/30) - Guess - non-foil; Actual - non-foil. CORRECT

predicted YES

@Loche Siege Rhino (21/30) - non-foil; Actual - non-foil. CORRECT

predicted YES

@Loche Dragonlord Ojutai (22/30) - non-foil; Actual - non-foil. CORRECT

predicted YES

@Loche Thalia, Heretic Cathar (23/30) - non-foil; Actual - non-foil. CORRECT

This marks the 20th correct guess. I will be resolving this to YES.

Uhh, did I screw this up? This shouldn't be closed until the end of December at least

@Loche Alright I reopened it I think

predicted YES

@Loche The last pack is scheduled to be opened on 12/24