Will the value of any of the cards printed in the Magic: 30th Anniversary set exceed the price of an MSRP sealed booster box by the end of 2027?
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This market will resolve yes if the TCG mid price of any card printed in the 30th Anniversary edition exceeds 999USD at any point between May 28, 2023 and December 31, 2027. I have given 6 months to allow buyers to receive their product and secondary market sales to begin. (Start date may be extended if after 4 months there are no reports of people receiving product or tracking codes.)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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