2026 FIFA World Cup / ICE Disruption Scenarios
5
Jul 31
Select up to 3 options
LOW: Utilitarian. enforcement limited to >6m from venues; no fan-targeted raids.
MED: Transit Vetting. Active ID checks/arrests at stadium-link rail and bus nodes >1.5m from venues.
HIGH: Perimeter Filtering. ICE integrated at stadium security gates for fan-by-fan vetting or arrests.
SEVERE: Pitch-Level. Agents enter stands/bowl for protest suppression/arrests/ or extraction.
NUCLEAR: Relocated. One or more US-leg matches suspended/moved to Brazil/MX/CAN due to federal friction.
See results (I'm just checking the odds before I cancel my non-refundable flight to LAX)
What are the most likely interventions by US Federal Immigration authorities (ICE/CBP) during the 2026 FIFA World Cup (June 11 – July 19)?
(Choose more than one if needed)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Which Team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Which teams will make it to the semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Who will win the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup?
Which country will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
At least one FIFA World Cup 2026 host city changes before the tournament
23% chance
Which team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup (Multiple Choice)
Who will win the FIFA World Cup 2026?
Which 2 teams will play in the 2026 World Cup Final? (FIFA)
Who Will Finish First in Group I of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?