Will the Mars Ingenuity helicopter wake up with flight capabilities after the Martian winter?
19
104Ṁ695
resolved Oct 8
Resolved
YES
Close date is at the end of November to account for any margin between the end of Martian winter and the waking up of the helicopter. Will resolve to YES if the helicopter wakes up and make at least one successful flight, even if capabilities are somewhat degraded. Examples of acceptable deck rotation would be reduced flight time, damaged non-critical sensors, or reduced battery capacity. Will resolve to NO at market close if these conditions have not had a clear indication they will occur. For cases that fall in the middle, I will use my best judgment. Jun 9, 5:02pm: degradation, not "deck rotation". Apologies
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ88
2Ṁ53
3Ṁ30
4Ṁ15
5Ṁ9
Sort by:
predictedYES

Ginny has made two flights that were ~ 1 minute each. Given it normally does not run for much more than that (record was ~4 minutes), I think this qualifies as a YES

predictedYES

https://mars.nasa.gov/news/9275/nasas-insight-waits-out-dust-storm/

The InSight mission is getting hit hard by these storms, it'll probably survive this one but another in quick succession could kill it for good. They only mentioned Ingenuity in the article but I'd be extra worried if we hear bad news about InSight in the near future.

@LivInTheLookingGlass

To confirm that she is still flightworthy, we performed a 50-rpm spin on Aug. 6, and on Aug. 15 we performed a high-speed spin, which spun up the rotor system to flight-like speeds of 2,573 rpm for several seconds.

Flight 30 will be shorter, translating sideways only 7 feet (2 meters) and then landing, but with the specific goal of providing a data point on Ingenuity’s ability to accurately approach a landing target.

Sounds like they're confident she will fly, but cautious about landing (and battery charge capabilities).

predictedYES

@wasabipesto that's my take, too. I think I want to wait until flight 31 or 32 to resolve, as right now I don't think they can hold enough charge to run the heaters at night

predictedYES
Also plugging another Ingenuity market: https://manifold.markets/wasabipesto/will-ingenuity-have-more-than-90-mi
Ingenuity has surpassed expectations so far, but the martian winter can be harsh. 75% seems about right (maybe 85? not looked into specific failure points on a helicopter vs a rover)
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy