If I switch my backup server to using BTRFS raid5, will I have a major failure within a year?

No offense Olivia, but it's pretty weird to me that in 2023 people still manage RAIDs and backup servers, presumably in a server room somewhere, instead of putting stuff on the cloud. Is that like a hobby thing?

We're two weeks away from the 1-year mark, and it hasn't failed yet. I think the probability is too high 🤔

Assuming an annual failure rate of 1%; that btrfs raid5 means you can recover from 1 failure; that there aren't independent other risks (dubious, websearch tells me btrfs raid5 is bad for unclear reasons); and that you probably have less than 40 drives

Then the math says this should be <8%, though I won't push it that far for model risk reasons. I don't think I can contribute much re what specific setup will minimize risk of data loss.

Personally, my next storage server will likely be debian+ZFS with NFS on top

@citrinitas I think regardless of setup, I will use a btrfs root. In my experience so far, trying to get ZFS working on root has just caused pain

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